Danmark

4. marts 2011

Growth is not just growth – with or without inflation – it seems to be a fight for or against more inflation


It’s incredible what you have to read concerning the economic growth in Germany. The growth including inflation referred to in the papers. The last mentioned is about 2%  a year in Germany January 2011, and it has to be subtracted from the nominal growth rate. It’s almost ridiculous, especially when we read that ECB intends to raise the interest rate next month to prevent much more inflation, and EU recently began constructing a new common price-index for the member countries. The most funny is the comparison of what EU informs about the inflation-cleansed growth, and what http://www.indexmundi.com writes about precisely the same thing. There is certainly no match.

                                   Germany real growth :

Germany - GDP - real growth rate (%)

I do read 1% in 2009.

Mars 25th 2011: Gross domestic product (in USA), the value of all the goods and services produced in an economy, rose at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 3.1% in the October to December period, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Eurostat on: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&tableSelection=1&labeling=labels&footnotes=yes&language=en&pcode=tsieb020&plugin=0
Real GDP growth rate – [tsieb020]. Growth rate of GDP volume – percentage change on previous year. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value… more

I read -4.7%, but perhaps when compared with indexmundi one of them seems to have excluded or included former East-Germany and the other have not.

Let’s take Denmark. Eurostat says real growth -5.2% in 2009. Indexmundi says real growth -1.2% in Denmark in 2009. We have also seen that the result might be pretty different when you just look at one country and its statistics, for example Denmark with a consumer-price-index and a price-index of producergoods.

We are just expected to go on while the fight continues between those who intend to make more inflation and those who intend to reduce or prevent inflation. The depth of the fall certainly depends of winners. Real growth is unattainable without urgent big structural changes. John Maynard Keynes used an expression close to a tautology: “We are all dead in the long run”. That does not need an mathematical interpretation with a model world without real human beings and no money. This world-economy we live in with money shall be destroyed once in a lifetime, because there certanly are human beings in it and money to destroy.

A new monetary system after the debt has been settled

Væksttallene i pressen er misvisende – og blot udtryk for kampen mellem pest og kolera


Det er så utroligt, hvad vi skal læse om den såkaldte vækst i Tyskland. Det er væksten inklusive inflationen der refereres i alle de danske blade. Den sidste er 2% p.t. i Tyskland, og den skal trækkes fra den den nominelle vækstrate. Det er så latterligt. Især når det netop oplyses, at ECB agter at hæve renten i næste måned for begrænse inflationen og EU arbejde med at få en fælles prisindeks indført for medlemslandene. Men det allermest morsomme er at sammenligne, hvad EU melder om den inflationsrensede vækst og hvad http://www.indexmundi.com skriver om præcis samme sag. Det er ikke just overensstemmelse:

                                       Tyskland real growth :

 
Germany - GDP - real growth rate (%)

Jeg aflæser vist dette til 1% i 2009.

Så går vi til Eurostat på: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&tableSelection=1&labeling=labels&footnotes=yes&language=en&pcode=tsieb020&plugin=0
Real GDP growth rate – [tsieb020]. Growth rate of GDP volume – percentage change on previous year. Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the economic activity, defined as the value… more

Her aflæser vi -4,7%. Men kan der så være forglemmelser hos Mundi om inklusive eller eksklusive tidl. Østtyskland?

Lad os tage Danmark. Her melder Eurostat om realvæksten i 2009 -5,2%. Mundi melder realvækst i DK 2009 til  -1,2%. Det skal siges at EU netop er gået igang med at indrette angiveligt mere ensartet prisindeksberegning fælles for medlemslandene. Vi har set at resultaterne kan blive nok så forskellige, også i Danmark afhængig af blot hvilket indeks, der anvendes af de mulige her til lands, forbrugerprisindekset eller vareindekset.

Vi skal se alt sejle videre, medens kampen står på om inflationen skal fremmes en tid endnu med fald mod forventeligt større dybder af stilstand og gældsættelse, eller den skal standses mod lidt mindre stilstand, men fortsat lidt mere gældsættelse mod enden. John Maynard Keynes brugte standardudtrykket i denne forbindelse: “På langt sigt er vi alle døde”. I modsætning til alt andet Keynes skrev kræver denne erfaringsmæssige konstatering ikke en matematisk fortolkning i en modelverden uden egentlige mennesker, og samtidig et teoretisk byttesamfund uden penge, der alligevel kan ødelægges og endog bliver det her med penge, hvor vi bor i virkeligheden. Set fra Keynes’ internationale pengesystems begyndelse er vi netop nået til det lange sigt – ikke i nogen model, men i virkeligheden, fordi her netop er mennesker og penge at ødelægge.

Nyt internationalt monetært system efter en gældsudligningen og hvad dertil hører

English version