Danmark

30. marts 2009

Inflation Is Tempting for Indebted Nations


Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123836516806167317.html#mod=djemITPE

By MARK WHITEHOUSE

“LONDON — U.S. President Barack Obama and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown are seeking to lead the world into battle against the financial crisis, putting up trillions of dollars to revive their economies and bail out banks. Now, investors and other politicians are posing a troubling question: Can their governments handle the bill?

The answer, economists and analysts say, is almost certainly yes. But some offer a caveat: Countries with debt burdens mounting to levels not seen in decades will ultimately face a growing temptation to allow inflation to accelerate more than they typically would — a move that would slash the value of their debts as the prices of everything else rose.

That could cause a lot of pain for all kinds of investors, from U.S. and U.K. pensioners on fixed incomes to big holders of U.S. Treasurys such as the Chinese central bank.

“It would be epic, it would be terrible, but it’s probably easier than outright defaulting,” says Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

Messrs. Obama and Brown have cast themselves as the vanguard of efforts to lift the global economy out of recession, as leaders of the world’s 20 largest economies prepare for a crisis-fighting summit in London on Thursday. Both have announced fiscal-stimulus packages, with the U.S. planning to spend some $787 billion. And both have turned to “quantitative easing,” in which their central banks plan to print large amounts of money — more than $1 trillion in the US, and at least £75 billion ($107.26 billion) in the U.K. — in part to buy some of the same bonds the governments will issue to cover their gaping budget deficits.

If the stimulus measures show signs of working and preventing deflation, both the U.S. and the U.K. will face a new quandary: when and how to stop and get their budget deficits under control.

If they wait too long, they could launch an upward spiral of prices as too much stimulus money chases the same goods and labor — a possibility that has recently raised increasing concern. Last week, Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolánek, before resigning Thursday after an earlier no-confidence vote, echoed complaints from other European leaders when he called the U.S. spending plans the “road to hell.” Meanwhile, poor demand at a U.S. government bond auction and the failure of a separate auction in the U.K. added to unease about the market’s willingness to support the countries’ heavy borrowing.

Some analysts have gone so far as to conjure up images of Germany in the 1920s or Zimbabwe in the 2000s, where the printing of money to cover chronic deficit spending debased currencies and bred hyperinflation. “Horror stories about how hyperinflation starts are going to be surfacing again,” says Jan Loeys, global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London. “Investors are getting worried.”

Most economists and analysts say that in the case of the U.S. and U.K., that kind of doomsday scenario is extremely unlikely. While they believe policy makers will prefer to err on the side of inflation, they don’t expect it to get out of control. Heavy borrowing could boost both governments’ net debt to nearly 100% of the nations’ annual economic output, but that’s still less than Japan, which so far hasn’t had trouble issuing bonds despite its lower credit rating. At the right price, both countries’ bonds have a lot of natural buyers, such as pension funds that need to lock in payments stretching far into the future.

More pernicious, though, will be the political cost of making the interest payments on all the new debt. If interest rates rise to a moderate level, economists estimate that annual debt payments could reach 4% of GDP, an amount roughly equivalent to the entire U.S. military budget, forcing tough decisions on what else to cut.

The debt-service burden could be even more troublesome in the U.K., which faces the prospect of sharp budget cuts and higher taxes after years of depending on the finance sector for much of its tax revenue…”

 

Sonia

Etniske danskernes rettigheder til at ytre sig fjernes


 

Jyllands-Posten

 

“Leder: Forbuden tale

30.03.09 kl. 03:00

Det er vanskeligt at bekæmpe et problem, hvis ikke man må kalde det ved rette navn. Det er vanskeligt at indkredse problemet, hvis man er tvunget til at anvende omskrivninger, eufemismer og besynderlige hentydninger, og så længe man ikke har indkredset problemet, er det vanskeligt at udtænke løsningsforslag. Problemet er kriminelle indvandrere i flere generationer fra muslimske lande, og sådanne indvandrere er muslimer. Det er de, fordi deres religion byder dødsstraf til renegater. Derfor er det logisk korrekt under ét at kalde indvandrere fra muslimske lande for muslimer, og når de er kriminelle, turde det vel være lige så logisk korrekt at tale om kriminelle muslimer.

Men var vor mund, for det er forbuden tale. Det fik den københavnske psykolog Nicolai Sennels at vide på den brutale måde, da han under en konference i februar i fjor påpegede problemet med baggrund i sin personlige erfaring som kommunalt ansat psykolog. Integrationsborgmester Jakob Hougaard, København, havde indkaldt en række eksperter til en konference med titlen ”Mangfoldighed og tryghed i byen”, og formålet var at samle ideer til en mere effektiv integrationsindsats.

På dette møde gjorde Nicolai Sennels rede for sine erfaringer, der blandt andet bygger på samtaler med flere hundrede kriminelle indvandrere og egentlig psykologisk behandling af omkring 150.

Efter mødet blev han indkaldt til en alvorlig samtale og fik en officiel påtale for at have udtalt sig i strid med kommunens ”værdigrundlag.” Hvad værdigrundlaget helt præcist består i, og hvad det præcist var for punkter, psykologen havde forbrudt sig imod, står den dag i dag ikke helt klart, men det var noget med generaliserende karakteristik af en bestemt befolkningsgruppe baseret på denne gruppes religiøse observans. Resten af den historie er kort fortalt, at Nicolai Sennels blev presset ud af sin stilling i Københavns kommune og i dag arbejder som psykolog i forsvaret…”

Sonia

PS: For at kunne påvise f.eks. overkriminaliteten blandt fremmede eller overforbruget bl.a. af velfærd i forhold til danskerne under hensyntagen til de respektive befolkningsandele skal du kunne forholdstalsregning. Det er ikke længere en udbredt metier i Danmark at eskalere i disse ‘højvidenskabelige udregningsteknikker’ – som mange flere kendte i 1800-tallet. Derfor bør du repitere dette link, der giver nogle klare illustrative eksempler på, hvorledes denne ‘denne højere videnskab’ (læs: simple udregning) praktiseres: 

https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/11/20/forholdstallene-og-keynesianer-sniksnakkes-uddybes-lidt/

Dagens motto: Man skal ikke forveksle udvikling med afvikling