21. maj 2006

Causal-interpretation almost left

Filed under: Environment, History — Tags: , , , — Jørn @ 10:05


Causal-interpretation nearly left – except for when it fit into the ideology


The big jump in the economic and political science of society happens at the transition from the phase, where you can or can not explain and foresee the behavior of the human being to the managed influence on behavior, watching and control. The corresponding model of the explanation and forecasting of the human being suites the underlying so-called empirism later on positivism, which model-apparatus uses the model of causal-interpretation that needs the past to explain the presence and the future. The experience, the past and also the cause are not acknowledged, and this is perhaps quite legitimately to maintain, when models show themselves not to apply to the outside world, even if you have made an effort with all possible interpretations, especially those in symbols of mathematical language.


And it is of special interest, when we for a moment concentrate our thinking a little on just another circle of subjects – which has not been discussed anywhere else in this critical light:

Environment, ecology, stratosphere, menaces to the globe, effects on heath, influence of individual behavior in this connection and the correlation including the influence of businesses on the surroundings and the commissioner’s influence of behavior on the producer. Taken in a random order, which is the custom in this subjects.


In the treatment of these subjects it is fully correct to show “coherence including causality” between this and that. This is often done by using the so-called statistical, quantitative methods.


They use phenomenons that can be described using figures. I can assure the reader that two of the used methods, Regression, Regression and the Chi-test among others have been used many times to obtain the wanted coherence or the wanted causality from the model. Statistical method of analysis, behind the most ‘so-called investigations’, which is shown to the reader very often on TV as a report, an examination or the like. They all show that something-must-be-done or problem-reaction-solution.


The methods are very fine mathematics, but when you use them, it is very easy to 1.Interpret the problem wrong, 2. To choose a nonsense-coherence or, 3. To select the wrong method, 4. To use the methods wrong, 5. Interpret the results from the model wrong, 6. To make a wrong conclusion on the basis of the results of model and transmit these results to be results of the real world. Finally you can give the material to an unsuspecting, but “very understanding” journalist at a powerful medium. As you perhaps might understand, there are several possibilities and especially a lot of impossibilities.

One of these is (read 1. above):


Because two phenomenons appear at the same time, there do not have to light a clear and imperative coherence between them. If for example the number of couples of storks in Denmark in the summer time has increased from 12 to 25 couples in the last two years, this is not a sure indicator of a so-called boom of babies among the Danes. “Babies are coming with the stork”, small Danish children were told earlier. In the beginning of the 1990s the Danish authorities informed about a boom of Danish babies, although the Danish did not seem to give birth to more children. The number of babies beared by foreigners or their children could be 20,000-25,000 a year – you can not see how many – out of a birth-number of totally about 70.000 a year. It should be mentioned in this connection that the Danish made – and still do – between 17. 000 and 19.000 abortions a year in the beginning of the 1990s.


On these stratetic subjects, the fear of the unknown, of the distant, of the unchallenged till now, for the unexamined, where refined methods of measuring often effect the observation, very much can be shown and very much can not be refused – on the other hand to prove is something else. There are plenty of current phenomenons, plenty to undertake.

Environment, illness, health and the contributions in these connections. And then the career.


The environment-ecology-consciousness (do not read knowledge) is already profound and solid incorporated in marketing, pedagogy….everything.

The paradox and dilemma of the prevention – the claimed effect appear in the long run, and it is difficult to reject the effect of prevention a priori – will surely be used the with most explosive effects in the mind of the individuals of the masses. In order to control them.


It is interesting that the cause very easy can be used here, even though equivalence, unambiguity, func-tionality, really are serious scientific problems, which often are overlooked, even though these problems are rather determining.

You have to understand: The end justifies the means – especially for many ambiguities ones among the ‘The Jesuits of the Time’ for the salvation of the world. This was just a little disgression, but not without importance. A total statement about this theme ought to have a reading of its own.


If the fourth power or wave (after or at the same time as the third power) should not be found exactly around these new so-called “scientific-like causal-shows”, I should wonder a great deal. The witchcraft at least can contribute to Something-Have-To-Be-Done-Effect, which precisely matches Hegels Tese-Antitese-Syntese planning-model.

It might happen at the same time that essential facts are totally overlooked – the cause can be used, when needed to reach the politically correct effects.


Skjern Aa-project:

Some Danes remember the Skjern Aa – project with the Company Moors ad an adviser

The chairman of the plot owners of Skjern Aa (a minor Danish river) had asked the Danish King some years ealier, if he would like to see the project.

The King answered: No, you destroy the nature, good man.

Erik Lund wrote the critical book ”The Power of the advising Company of Moors – the report of the outrage on Skjern Aa” (ISBN 87-87951-53-3). They tried to imprison Erik Lund.

The project was totally failed, and the river has now been lead back to its old, natural course (at a price of ½ billion ddk). The project was not more expensive all in all, poorly economically.

This price is about daily costs of quite another project – immigrants’ stay in Denmark.


Water Invironment-Schedule:

An another example from Denmark is The Water Environment Plan. Price 17 bill. Ddk. Several facts were completely overlooked in spite of the fact that you could have learnt in Holland, and could have learnt a little more inorganic chemistry too. This was shown in Jyllands-Posten by our famous patriot from World War I Flemming Juncker.

From causal-models the transition first went towards the philosophical society-thinkers. They describe, interpret and seek understanding. With this starting point causal-models are getting insufficient, because the personality can not objectively analyzed. This has been shown already by the philosopher Emanuel Kant.

The theory of behavior is powerful, generally also in the Danish (economic) HD-education, and first-rate men lead the arrangement, the lectures, the problems, the seminars and the examination. One of these Professor Flemming Hansen wrote publicly – under the third wave – November 21st 1989 and November 6th 1992 that 15 millions ought to live in Denmark. Of these 15 millions – we have near 5,4 millions inhabitants for the moment on our 43,850 square-kilometers – only half of them need to be individuals which have been born in Denmark.

The number of professors of this kind is increasing all the time.


Let me quess, the fourth wave is the environment used in a political correct way on the minds of the first-rate men and women.


Comparative Analyses Doomed

The basic of comparisons are being blurred more and more

– the official methods of accounting and analyzing the population is being constructed specific for this aim

With a steady growing number of foreign immigrants in Denmark several comparative accounts and analyses are made. Here you should notice that comparisons can give unwanted results. There are wrong methods and also directly unfair comparisons. The lasts mentioned have to be avoided.  

Primo 2005 the authorities in Denmark discussed if the public still should be presented for comparative accounts of crime rates in the future, and if these accounts eventually should be published yearly or just every second year. The unit Investigation in the Ministry of Justice published an account in October 2005 (cf. http://www.jm.dk/image.asp?page=image&objno=73956) of the crimes in 2004.  This account should divide the crimes between Danish and individuals with foreign background. As the population account just include the first generation of descendants of immigrants, it implies that the crimes of the later generations are accounted as Danish crimes. But it is even worser that the basic of population just include about the half of group with foreign origine (until now and the divergence widens all the time). This implies that the criminality of the immigrants is being even estimated much too high. Expressed very simple: If there are few immigrants, then the distribution of criminality seems much bigger related to the size of total immigrantgroup. That crime acts carried out by later generations have been accounted on the Danish entry draw a little in the other direction. That is the reason why the account of charges in 2004 from Ministry of Justice unfortunately is not be trusted.

Fundamentally this is caused by the registration upon the concepts of immigrants and descedants that the total account is based on. It is not adequate and unequivocal. The immigrants do not have a supplus-criminality of more than five times, as the account obviously should show, but a supplus –criminality of about 2-4 time depending on which offences of Criminal Code we concentrate. It is correct that supplus-criminality are the biggest for crimes with more severe punishment.

We have corrected the total accounts of most foreign foreigners (corrected for 25 years) on : http://www.lilliput-information.com/uscan.html

So, you see it is a horribly dilemma the authorities have put themselves into. 

The account of unemployment:

(these defective unemployment accounts are made in all EU member-states)

The unemployment of immigrants and of Danes are frequently being reported by unemployment rates. In Den-mark unemployed on social security are not accounted in the unemployment accounts, neither in the accounts of unemployed immigrants nor the in the accounts of unemployed Danes. The stream of expelled on social security increases when the period you have to work as a member of an unemployment-insurance to get unemployment benefit is being extended by law. The same result when corresponding the period of which you can receive unemployment benefit as unemployed is shortened.

Does that mean that the politicians make law and that they are able to account the unemployment away? Yes, the purpose they aim at may often be something quite different, but it is one the consequences.

The unemployment rate is accounted as the percentage of the number of unemployed members of an unemployment insurance divided with number of all the members of the unemployment insurance in the entire working force – defined as the part of the population supplying their skills on the labour market.     

Children and young people being educated or pensioners are not to be found in the working force of course.

The Danes have a considerable large part of the population in the working force, 76 p.c. in 2001. We could read in a splashed reporting in Berlingske Tidende 18/08/2001 that the unemployment rate of Danish men was 4 p.c. and that of the Danish women was 5 p.c.

Actually the rate of all unemployed in the working force was 4-5 times larger, when unemployed on social security were correct included.

When the unemployment among non-Western immigrants is accounted the results can turn to be this or that.

The highly improved Rockwool Foundation wrote: ”In 2001 44 p.e. Of the non-Western immigrants were employed, in 1994 just 33 p.e. The employment frequence – the percent in the labor force – was only the half of the Danish of 76 p.e., and this frequence is also a great deal lower than a couple of ten-years ago”.

Let’s translate that:

I.e. 56 p.e. of non-Western immigrants were unemployed in 2001 against 67 p.e. in 1994…

plus a lot more among the non-Western immigrants of whom just about 38-40 percent were in the labour force. The rest (60-62 percent) were not children and young ones being educated or pensioners outside the labour force. 0-24 years old immigrants and their offspring amounted about 41 p.e., and the pensioners 3.5 p.e. of the entire group of immigrants, all in all 44.5 percent in 2001.

If we assume that immigrants live in Denmark on the same conditions as the Danes the difference from 38-40 percent and up to 76 percent were also unemployed or definitely 60 percent minus 44.5 percent = 15.5 percent or perhaps 17.5 percent have to be added to 56 percent to make equality.

I.e. at least 3 of 4 non-Western immigrants were unemployed (or on paid early retirement). And the percent of the immigrants-group which were members of the working force has even been substan-tial reduced since 1981….in order artificially to reduce the unemployment figure substantial.

I.e. more and more non-Western immigrants have become clients on social security or clients on early retire-ment. It is actually the same for Danes, because in reality there is nothing but recession, and the times get worser.

We have not shown any unemployment figures for non-Western immigrant  women, but their employment frequency is substantial lower, and the unemployment among these women is considerable higher than the corresponding among non-Western immigrant men.  

Comparative crime rates:

(Are being abolished in Denmark, and in several European countries you find none.

Perhaps the word “crime rate” should be abolished too, just to be sure that comparative analyses do not emerge again.)

In Denmark the commissioner of police makes the total account of acts of crime by accounting the number of charges and later on the number of convictions.  These crimes are divided in categories after the laws that have been broken, and in more or less details depending on the purpose.

Now you can choose different views how these accounts of crimes should be related as an example to the criminals themselves, to the groups of ages among them, and to the total population. The number of criminals and the distribution of ages within the different main categories of crime acts can be of interest for investigation of similar crimes later on, and also in the preventing work to impede future crimes. 

If you want to compare the crime rates between immigrants and Danes a lot of relations can be involved to secure that the drawn picture is realistic. The crime rates are highest among young and younger individuals.

Therefore it is not surprising that “immigrants” and their “offspring” (in the first generation) in the accounts of Danmarks Statistik of January 1st 1998 and 2003 show that 40.3 p.c. respectively 52.2 p.c. were less than 30 years. This result in a heavier weight of the young ones in the accounts compared with the Danes who only had 37.7 p.c. and 36.6 p.c. respectively. But the Danes shall not be made responsible for the crime acts made by non-Western immigrants. The reason why the non-Western immigrants have relatively more young and younger individuals is that the immigrants give birth to more than the double number of children in average, and also because it definitely is the younger people who dominate among the immigrating individuals.

(As an argument or an excuse to a raped Danish woman you cannot use the distribution of ages among immigrants or refer to the fertility among foreign women either)

Does Copenhagen grow by 250,000? (also on the distribution of ages and the age groups-shares in Copenhagen and the whole country

The rapid growing share of people less than 30 years – from 40.4 p.c. in 1998 to 52.2 p.c. in 2003 – could easily get the amount of crimes to increase further. If this should be the truth we hope it shall not be hidden.

The number of immigrants and their offspring are accounted with the limitation that all later generations than the first of children are accounted as Danes, Danish citizens and they are mentioned as new-Danes. We realize that in spite of the definition of a Dane by the Law of Citizenship – a person who is a Danish Citizen and who has a least one parent who has been born in Denmark and who is a Danish citizensthe content has been watered down so much that it is possible by the use of the altered account of population from 1991 that much more than the half of all non-Western immigrants and their children are counted as Danes.   

This implies that the original population of Danes in the accounts used to comparative analyses are being given the responsibility of the crime acts that in reality were done by non-Western immigrants and their children, even when the comparisons is being done by accounting correctly relatively to the amounts of groups of population.

Interpols’ method of crime rate accounting that compare the number of crime acts in the different populations and groups of population with the sizes of the groups are invariable as long as it is of any interest to know if 150 cases of rape on the island Anholt or the same number in Denmark as a whole in the same period has to alarm the most, and also to look behind the distribution and the reasons behind these crime acts.

The number of crime acts within the different main categories of acts – and made by non-Western immigrants and their offspring – per 100,000 in the group of non-Western immigrants and their offspring, is 2- 4 times larger than the respective number accounted for Danish citizens. Even though several hundred thousand of non-Western immigrant and their offspring also had been given the Danish citizenship.

More details on: http://www.lilliput-information.com/crim.html and http://www.lilliput-information.com/emgintkrim.html

As we notice the distribution of crimes among the immigrants and their offspring does not seem to decrease at all as time goes, on the contrary it seems to increase after a longer stay, also dominated by unemployment, a lot of people find it important to get the crime distribution accounted within the two groups:

Western citizens included Danes on the one side and non-Western immigrants and their offspring on the other side. 

You have to remember that Denmark was chosen as immigration country in 1983 – though it certainly is not – with massive protests from the Danes.

The Danish authorities account the distribution comparatively by comparing between non-Western immigrants on one side and the total population (including non-Western immigrants) on the other side.

The crime rate among non-Western immigrants is of course then reduced a great deal. And gradually as the immigration continues, and the foreign excess of births over deaths increases in this country the crime rate among the foreigners increases. The paradox is then that you will read the opposite in the official accounts.

The distribution of births:

(between foreigners and Danes is just as blurred as the respective distributions in all the other EU member-states)

Recently an investigation based on data from Copenhagen Statistical Bureau showed that immigrants’ offspring adjust very quickly to the number of children born by Nordic women.

Yes, it looks like that, because the children of naturalized immigrants are accounted as Danish children. By this you get the impression that Danish women give birth to more children in average than they actually do, and respectively non-Western immigrants give birth to fewer children than they actually do. 

The fertility is the number of children women in the different ages of birth expect to give birth to and have given birth to.

It is extremely culturally conditioned and nothing point at Danish women to be given birth to more children again, also because the cultural reasons that lead to the small fertility-number 1.2-1.4 child a woman in average still are deciding.

The fertility was 1.377 in 1983, when the immigration was speeded up with the new Law of foreigners, and later on the fertility has most likely fallen further.

International investigations by UN and other organizations show respectively that the fertility changes by immigration to a Western country. The scarce living conditions have been given the most important impact on the relatively large number of births in non-Western countries compared with the West. By immigration to the West a marked change do begin. But the number of children per women increases instead caused by the better standards of living – perhaps you just notice one of a lot irreversible processes.  

Women who give birth to four children in Africa give birth to five in Western Europe. It is a tendency that we will be exposed in a correct made interview-investigation and a correct account of the average number of children per immigrated non-Western woman.

An example of a miss-investigation: http://www.lilliput-information.com/fert.html

”The Movements of the Population” from Danmarks Statistik 2003 shows that ”immigrants give birth to 2.550 child, their offspring to 1.776 and “Danmark” 1.674 child in average per woman. “Danmark” is a little funny and irrelevant category of collection here – collection of originale Danes’ births, naturalized’s births and the births of the naturalized children. The unscientific concepts ”immigrants” and their ”offspring” were introduced in 1991 even though they did covered the issue. The issue should be to describe what the population in Denmark is compounded of. By those special concepts the deciding powers managed to have the foreigners’ births called Danish in the accounts. All most at the same time the number of naturalizations was increased to the record large number from 1995. This resulted in an decreasing number of registered foreign citizens from the year 2001 in which the number of new immigrant exceeded 20,000. The large number of naturalizations simply exceeded the number of new immigrant every year from this year on.

The same happened in all 15 EU member-states. In Belgium the number of foreigners was reduced from 903.120 in 1998 to 846.734 in the year 2003 according to the official statistics of population. Just in the year 2000 124.962 Belgian citizenships were distributed, a number that was a great deal larger than the number of foreign immigrants passing into Belgium the same year.

The new Belgian citizens are called new-Belgians, and the many new immigrants in the year 2000 were not enough to take the places of “the newborn” new-Belgians – the former immigrants – in the account.

Precisely the same in Denmark, in a smaller scale.  

Joern E. Vig, cand. oecon.