20. maj 2006

European population and workforce

Population of European Union and the workforce

‘Half a million immigrants every year’. 15 November 2005 Christian Daily Newspaper in Denmark reported so: Spain needs 500,000-600,000 young fit immigrants a year for the next 15 years to compensate for one of the smallest numbers of births. But this cannot be the only possible solution, experts maintain.

The Spanish birth rate was reported 1,26 a woman in 2002, estimated to 1.28 by CIA for 2005, in the article mentioned above is reported 1.32, called a weak increase from the historical low birth rate 1.14 earlier. 1.32 may also refer to an expected or a provisional statement. It appears from Eurostat’s statistical presentations that the old 15 EU-countries are alleged to have a total fertility of 1.46. Among all the 25 EU-countries the average is accounted totally to 1.49, and certainly not as EU-Commissioner Vladimir Spidla was reported to have alleged on DR-Texttv 18 Mars 2005 that this figure represented the average for Ethnic European peoples all together, and the Danish Minister of Commerce and Economics also wrongly maintained in the Danish press 2 November 2004 the fertility 1.746 was the one of the Danes. In Denmark the total fertility is far higher (1.74) than the European average, Eurostat reports. The reason for this must be that the non-Western part of the population in Denmark representing an average fertility of 3,5 child a woman or more is far the highest in Europe. 

As the report of Eurostat deals with the total fertility-figure of the EU-countries and the single countries, we can conclude that these fertility-figures have been accounted as a mix of the group representing high fertility, i.e. non-Western women, and of the group representing low fertility, the Western, among those the Danes. If we assume that the Danish women do not bear more children in average, but perhaps even fewer children a woman than the average of the Spanish women that is strongly influenced by Catholic traditions the following waged averages could suit the problem in Denmark[1]

I: 1,26*(1-x) + 3,5*x = 1,74

Assume for a moment that the increase in fertility from 1.14 to 1.32 among Spanish women just happened the same way as it did in Denmark:  The naturalized and the children of the naturalized are accounted as Danes, even though they belong to the immigrant-group and continue the fertility-pattern of this group for generations after the naturalization: 

II: 1,14*(1-x) + 3,5*x =1,74

x is the part of the bearing who are non-Western, 1-x is the part of Western among the bearing, 1.26 or 1.14 is the fertility among the ethnic Danes and other Western immigrants in Denmark, 3.5 the expected fertility among the non-Western immigrants in Denmark, and 1.74 is the official total Danish fertility for 2005. x or the part of bearing women with a non-Western background is calculated by the solving the equations I and II to respectively about 21 p.c. and about 25 p.c. As the non-Western has an about 25 p.c. larger part in its population less than 25 years old compared with the Danes’ part less than 25 years old, and the births begin in lower ages in the non-Western group. This means that 21 and 25 p.c. of the birth-giving cannot be the typical part to characterize the population’s part. From the calculated estimates the rate of immigrants will be:

12-15 p.c. of the inhabitants in Denmark

or according to equation II

15-18 p.c. of the inhabitants of Denmark

If the increasing take in of immigrants to EU is being camouflaged just like it is in Denmark, it results in as little noise as possible and as little turmoil as possible in the ethnic originale population: According to the netsite of Eurostat almost 436,000 new citizenships were handed out to immigrants in 2002 in all EU-countries. In 2003 988,600 immigrated to EU (according to Fischer Almanach 2002-2004), and there was an excess of births of more than 300,000 children of immigrants the same year. The real increase in the number of immigrants and the increase originated from births among immigrants was calculated after the subtraction of 436,000 new citizens. This means the immigration and the number of immigrant-births actually are too small, as the 2.3 mio. lacking ethnic Europeans has in this way got somebody else to take their places and the number of places all in all has  in addition to this been extended with about 1,290,000 in 2003.

Since 2002  a solution to the financial crash of welfare-systems has been needed in more EU-countries caused by the ageing of the European population, and not at least caused by the extra not less than 12-18 p.c. immigrants and their descendants originating from non-Western countries until now, immigrants with continuous weaker connections to the European labour market for the last 30 years. The published solution for Spain’s future is 500,000-600,000, now immigrants fit for work every year. In percentage terms something similar in Denmark. Spain has 40,3 mio. inhabitants. Denmark has 1/8 of Spain’s population,  EU has 9.5 times larger number of inhabitants all in all. It has to be underlined that the countries Germany, France, Greece, Spain and Portugal had close to zero economic growth for last three years, and an accelerated outsourcing of jobs since millennium shift. On this background we must ask from where the jobs are expected to come, and also where to find all these immigrants fit for work and even well educated are expected to be found. In China?

Simply we can’t understand that the Danish chairman of a Danish government think tank Hans Kornoe Rasmussen and EU-Commissioner Vladimir Spidla are able to suggest a gradual 12-doubling of the immigration to Europe in the period till 2024, i.e.  in 19 years. From where do these gentlemen intend to get the workforce that they maintain we need ? A non-Marxist well-documented analysis not based on profound unrealistic assumptions clearly shows that apart from mostly the tax financed and wage heavy care sector for elderly we certainly are short of jobs in the trading and production lines now and will be in the future, and that we are loosing in the international competition caused by wage-difference e.g. to the Far East without a corresponding tax financed welfare-system. An immigration to EU of up to10 mio. immigrants fit for work every year (to perhaps a lower wage and a lower taxation) combined with continuously about 1 mio. a year (births included) of immigrants as for the last 30 years, immigrants who definitely and easy foreseen just have contributed to further the catastrophe of the natural collapse of the welfare-system. We are told that the solution is to found here.  The designed project for the future are as hopeless, even more hopeless than our experience tells us about the first immigration-wave from 1983 to 2005. The Danish Welfare Commission experiments in the same spirit with an example of calculation based on 30,000 fit and well-educated immigrants a year (excluded the burdens on the budget from their families and births among them) added to the  yearly 10,000 non-Western immigrants still with very bad employment-opportunities in Denmark.  If you assume equal rights is in force, I would say that family reunion and births will be made topical, also among the future fit and well-educated immigrants. This has the consequence that the future take in of immigrants must be even substantial larger according to the assumption-logical models and this immigration must even last eternal, the Welfare-Commission admits. Here we perhaps find the work of  Welfare-Commission brought into agreement with work of planners in the European Union.  

Just the fact that all generations of so-called descendants of immigrants until now have shown a continuous humbler connection to the group that contribute positively to the public budget in an area marked more and more by the international competition should get thinking people to understand that even a multi-doubling of the immigration can only have the purpose to get Europe on its knees. That it will happen should not be a secret. The Euro-Union is absolutely no counterbalance to the unsocial tendencies in the international competition as pointed out by incompetent analysers of the Centralistic kind that maintained this for years. On the contrary it will even strengthen these tendencies further, because it forces to adjustment of the working life to monetary commandoes. Take for example the price-rises on property made by the politicians. The only way to stop those rises was/ is to limit the European activity and employment as a necessary impact of the inflation-preventing steps that are built in by necessity in the chosen type of Euro-Union; it was designed and constructed to be exactly such a monetary arrangement. The same with the protecting duty on import of competitive products from low-wage-areas. The European Central Bank (ECB) has to follow a totally common policy in all 12 Euro-countries, later perhaps more, without having any other economic-political tools intact to turn to. If they will refer to another devastating  immigration-project or to an area of deflation on its way to serious political unstability and eventually war does not matter at all. The whole wretched business was programmed in advance, and there has been warned properly of everything in good time. If not, I do not dare to characterize the political elite of Europe.


Frontiers appear from the preliminary frontier-less terror: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/treji.html

M. Sc. (Economics) Joern E. Vig, Denmark


[1] You cannot rely on the official accounts of population among several other things because the naturalized citizens and the offspring of the naturalized are not counted in. Even the new (from 1991) categories ‘immigrants’ and ‘descendants’ do not include later generations of descendants than the first generation.

5 kommentarer »

  1. Pingback af Anonym — 2. juli 2006 @ 18:33

  2. Nice blog

    Kommentar af Johncy — 3. januar 2007 @ 09:49

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    Pingback af All Posts on http://Danmark.Wordpress.com « Danmark — 18. marts 2009 @ 00:01

  4. […] 9.       https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/05/20/european-population-and-workforce/ […]

    Pingback af Women in Austria: Persistent low fertility since 1980s « Dissidentpress — 18. april 2009 @ 21:16

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