18. maj 2006

Real Welfare, real Globalization

From ideology to reality

An obstinate and persistent propaganda about an idea from 1930s bore fruit. Very well, a better system of hospital-treatment and new schools did not seem to be the worst. But it certainly did not stop here. The ideology had got off the ground, and ideologies always continue towards the clouds, from where you perhaps are aware of that it is not easy to listen to and to look at the Earth.

The system of welfare in Denmark built on services and transfers as private right, but arranged with collective financing, so that the originators of the project imagined that individuals of the society should receive a little more from the society than they actually paid in taxes. This was of course nonsense, because the public cannot give you anything, before it has collected it via taxes[1], printed too many notes or borrowed the money.

Welfare and Globalization in an European context

In Ireland the export income was 7.5 times larger than the public transfers to unemployed, expelled and pensioners in 2004. In Denmark 1.95 times.

Welfare + Globalization – Ideology = Future

Denmark as an example: Population 5,427,459 – a little smaller than Berlin or Paris distributed on a larger area

The chairman of the headmasters’ union Peter Kuhlmann confirmed April 9 2006:

”… that the new reform of the gymnasium has not tempted more in the gymnasium to choose the scientific subjects. That is caused by lack of well-qualified scientific education in the Folkeschool…”

Welfare and globalization are closely connected problems, the gained sources of finance from globalization is the basis of welfare. An overall solution of the two parts in the Danish reality is the presumption to get any of them solved.

Welfare is almost totally tax-financed transfers and public services in Denmark, i.e. the payments and the services are private rights but the finance is collective.

In other European countries nations the principle of insurance is much more dominating, i.e. also individual financing. Globalization is a new smart word for the international competition. Even where the principle of insurance is leading the development there is heavy considerations of what to do to secure the home front.

Shifting Danish governments have built up the welfare system over a period of 40 years, developed the society further or chosen to dismantle it. By this the country has come in a situation, where we will hit natural stops of financing the welfare a few years from now. Taxation yield cannot finance the welfare, and the rate of taxation, the prices on the export goods and the state debt stops the development also via globalization.

To increase the share on the labour market in order to increase the yield from taxation is one strong side; and strong interests try to make us believe in this one-sided solution. That a much bigger production is needed is simply totally ignored.

It is central to make it attractive to establish new businesses and to extend the part of the existing that are fit for the development with strong international competition and welfare.

The welfare in Denmark cannot be financed, if the country as the country has been structured has to continue to export to get enough income of which the welfare must be financed.

From this starting point the way must be found, regardless what you may have learnt of or misused of John Maynard Keynes’s works and apart from this have learnt of welfare-ideological assumption-logic. There are a few possibilities of choise to adapt, but not a lot, and it is certainly an urgent matter. Export-incomes simply have to be gained. At the same time the total consumption has to be reduced, simply to because there is too little capital in the sector of production.

It has become advantageous to invest the capital outside the production in Denmark or invest it abroad. This implies that more than 594,112 (in 2004) or more than 22 p.c. are unemployed or expelled, cf. table 2 and table 1 respectively below.

Globalization means that the countries outside Western Europe actually have become more able to take over a lot the productions that earlier had been in clover here. Outside Western Europe and USA you do not have a fully developed industrial society, and even enriched or loaded with a welfare system.

The development of globalization has been active since the early 1980s, where outsourcing began from USA. The businesses reflag, establish new firms in Eastern European and Asian areas, where the cost level is substantial lower than here, or the foreign countries start businesses that as time goes by easily drive out the most wage-heavy Western businesses of competition.

The respective governments in the Europe must try to adapt to this reality, even though it perhaps might be regarded as substantial deviation from at least one ideological project, when you look carefully at the welfare and also at EU.

It is not possible to fight against the globalization with other means than bloc and import policy that just postpone the pain for the time being or end up in regimes fare from democracy. EU is such an experiment to restrain the competition from outside. And as EU is an ideological project it obvious continues its rather hopeless battle against the development. The same for all the other ideological conscious. They imagine they fight globalization, that they have completely misunderstood, and they believe the governments in the rich countries have started globalization as an ideological project, if not it must – in their imagination – be the result entirely of the liberalistic way of thinking. It is not. While the economic summit of the world are at a meeting indoor the demonstrations are active outdoor. That the participants in the summit-meeting try to find protection against the worst effects of globalization that developing and the less developed countries actually benefit from is far from understood among the demonstrators in the streets outside. You can also say that the countries that take up the challenge have not yet reached a level of development or dismantling as the situation in most the Western countries.

The fact is however that the swing of the pendulum leads the development to the countries that from their own points of view need development, and away from the West that will develope or dismantle, if no big changes are to take place in the way the responsible think and act in the West. All ideology still harms here.

Farewell to the ideologies – or collapse
Immigration to Western Europe built on an ideology or view of the world: by moving the many poor and oppressed in the Third world to the Western world the problems world wide would be solved, they imagine. That figures, numbers of births uncover the dimensions of the project, and it’s impossible success does not enter the brains of ideologists, because figures and logic is realism – idealism attend to moods, feelings including false sentimentality as the subject to be directed from.

A lot of businesses were/are very much interested in getting cheap labour force in to press the wages to a more tolerable level, the money wages had been forced through by strong unions – often monopolies – while the taxes as never before rose at the same time to make it possible for the welfare-elite to develop its project towards the clouds.

The business interest of lower rates of wage was no ideology, even though the ideological liberal way of thinking rather has to be blamed in another connection as we shall see.

It appeared however that chiefly immigrants without the needed qualifications went to Western Europe from the Middle East, South Asia and Africa. A few coped with the labour market, but the big majority were let in, and just draw extra from the welfare that has been built up without any demand from the ordinary citizens by the Danish ambitious ideologists.

The Danish Welfare Commission has in the May-report 2005 shown that immigrants consume more than three times more of the public budget compared with the Danish relatively to their percentage part of the population. [compare with the Welfare Commission in Boersen December 1 th 2005].

That distribution of ages influences this fact is in a realistic analysis without any relevance to the problem. Even the government has proven this in Denmark (in it’s thinktank the Rockwool-foundation). Much of what was expected from this project has not been fulfilled, compare with: https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/11/04/six-goid-reasons-to-count-the-immigrants-in-europe-correctly/ eller http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/seks.html (in Danish)

Immigrants draw 40 p.c. of the social welfare, the earlier Minister of Social Affaires Henriette Kjaer was referred to have reported May 1th 2005: http://www.filtrat.dk. And Aarhus municipality: “58 p.c. of the immigrants on social welfare and alike are unfitted for work – the politicians are upset”.

The liberal wing cannot reject that the imagination about the free movement of the labour force was tried in EF/EU (read details below). It was an ideological miss, an imbalance that has to be rectified, if it is possible. It was however easy to reach agreement with other in the ideological family about this theme. The International has sung the song about people that could settle down, where they were pleased in order finally to hear the trumpets of Jerico or Judgments Day.

But there is always mistakes in the ideological problems. After the collapse of the Eastern Bloc it ought to be obvious to anyone what ideology – every ideology – leads to. But no, now almost incredible numbers of civil servants were employed and a whole so-called industry of refugees grew up. And this automatically lead to tax-payment to all those who had built up the welfare system, to those acting in the welfare system, and to those protecting the unworried continuing of the system from the beginning of the 1980s with a Danish Foreigners’ Law with a jurisdiction extended to whole world and with turned up burden of proof.

In the period 1960-2001: Tax-payments more than doubled, and the state debt was multiplied 9.7 times accounted in fixed prices, the number of helpers doubled while the number that needed help was multiplied with three, and the original population decreased every year from 1968. Documentation: https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/06/14/top-and-buttom/

In spite of these facts the song sounded that the immigration created employment, and this was what was needed, the ideology-mislead leaders maintained. Latest the song has changed to that we need the workforce, and that is the reason why we have to have more immigrants. Perhaps it should be well-qualified immigrants this time, but the question still is: Where are they expected to come from? We certain do not need employment that further limits the saleable production and the export is my answer.

It was income from export to pay our very expensive welfare system that was needed.

Already from 1968 there was a birth-deficit among the Danes every year[2]. This will succeed in the long run when you have a system, where payments and finance are arranged in a way that they should equalized between the citizens in a lifetime. In the first decade of the 21st century big shares of older people appear because of this birth-deficit, and this big share of elderly come at the same time as the workforce decreases caused by decreased accession. Additionally we have the problem of globalization that actually has become a much bigger hurdle to overcome caused by the many ideological mistakes.

Competing ideologies created a fateful arrangement
In the period while the economy-consideration still were debated publicly among the political selected (until about the midd 1980s) you could frequently hear about e.g. import and export rates as respectively the share of GNP that the import respectively the export accounted for of the total disposal amount.

This worried the responsible, because especially in Denmark we had to import so much to create the necessary export using our skills. Denmark was/is very vulnerable towards inflation. And it came, and it became unpopular at last even among its earlier strongest spokesmen. It was caused by – inspired by John Maynard Keynes’s theory bits – a public surplus-consumption that rised its share from 14 p.c. to 28 p.c. of GNP that was even tripled in the period.[3] Reality showed itself.

We also were expected to understand that the vulnerability of the country has disappeared since we entered EU, that ideological was thought of as an almost self-sufficient bloc a la USA.

The Danish national account is defective caused by ideological fragments, primery originating from John Maynard Keynes’ works, that was built into the Danish national account by Viggo Kampmann. That is the reason why we will not use this account very much. The defective fragments were built in while Viggo Kampmann was a civil servant. Later on he became Prime Minister from 1960 to 1962.

Denmark is a country that from the course of nature has not given us much more to supply than agriculture production in newer times. Relatively late there was however created an industrial establishment that gradually took the lead in the foreign trade and the income after WW2. An effective system of schools and education was just the condition of that to happen.

Then the abrupt radical change came (but put into plans long before) to the total system of education in the 1960, because the task was to built up a tax-financed and ideology-ruled system of welfare and a massive public sector belonging together. A public sector to solve a lot of problems that almost nobody outside the leading welfare-elite had understood they had[4].

An obstinate and persistent propaganda about an idea from 1930s bore fruit. Very well, a better system of hospital-treatment and new schools did not seem the worst. But it certainly did not stop here. The ideology had got off the ground, and ideologies always continue towards the clouds, from where you a aware of that it is not easy to listen to and to look at the Earth.

A small supplement:

The economic reality is that it is the producers in every society who drive the economy forwards, savings is regarded as the fuel of this process.

What the consumers – private and public – give out does not start the economy, but perhaps it maintains the plant. The other thing has never happened, and will never happen. Sometimes we hear economy-commentators report that the expenditures spend on private consumption amounts to a certain percent of the entire demand. We also hear a lot of nonsense about consumer-expectations. To give the reader an impression that almost the opposite is deciding the following is mentioned: In the end the 1920s the private consumption in USA amounted to just 8.5 p.c. of the producers’ total expenditures. I.e. consumption of factors for production was 12 times bigger than the private consumption.

The process of production consists of a lot of complex stages – a lot more today. It is a necessary implication of this that total combined expenditures at all those stages/levels have to substantial exceed the expenditures of consumption. As an illustration you might imagine that total capital apparatus gradually transformed to final consumption; this could just happen in a period of several years (here 12). What has been paid on consumption – private as well as public – originate from production, while production originate from capital included expenditures on factors for production, of which wage-pay is a central factor-pay, that in the first link originate from savings. Therefore, the more savings the more real capital is created and accumulated in order to produce and consume more.

You could accept the following fact:Government expenditures and private consumption do not stimulate, but drain the economy. That is true regardless if you find these expenditures fair or you do not. This is deciding to understand.

The results of changing ideologic treatement can be read
Table 1

Not working outside the working ages in 2004

[The workforce that supply themselves on labour market: 2,867,000]

Outside the labour market
Early retirement pensioners[5]: 269,135
In between early retirement and Folk-pensioners: 205,761
Total: 1,224,331

Source : New from Denmark’s Statistics: No 326, 29 July 2005

Table 2 Not working in the working ages (16-66 years) in 2004

In the working ages 16-66 years
Registred unemployed: 335,000
Clients of social security: 144,000
Revalidents: 26,748
Municipal activated: 49,268
Job center-activated: 19,269
On leave: 7,535
On yield of unemployment: 12.302

Total: 594,142

Source : New from Denmark’s Statistics: No 326, 29 July 2005 [6]

Total tabel 1 og Tabel 2 : 1,818,473

Table 3 Other receivers of public transfers and public civil servants in 2004:Receivers of sickness- and childbirth benefits: 423,858
Public employed: 874,500
Total: 1,298,358

Total of table 1, table 2 and table 3 number of receivers of transfers as basis of living and public employed: 3,116,831 of a population of 5,427,459

To reach the total number of the population the number of healthy employed in saleable production and about 1 mio. children and young ones less than 18 years have to be added, and the number of receivers of sickness- and childbirth benefits in the public sector have to be subtracted, some of the last mentioned and some of young ones less than 18 years are obviously included in number mentioned above.

Public running costs: 771.6 bill. dkr. in 2004 and 801,6 bill. dkr. (budget 2006)
Of this transfers: 336.7 bill. dkr. in 2004 and 375,4 bill. dkr. (budget 2006)
Export income totally: 656.6 bill. dkr. in 2004 and 663.1 bill. dkr. (budget 2006)

Source : New from Denmark’s Statistics: No 30, 24 January 2006
Source : New from Denmark’s Statistics: No 131, 29 March 2006

Just one comparing example:

In Ireland the export income was 7.5 times larger than the public transfers to unemployed, expelled and pensioners in 2004. In Denmark the factor was 1.95. Source: http://www.cso.ie/statistics/expend_social_welfare.htm and http://www.cso.ie/statistics/botrade.htm

Denmark has larger public running costs than export income. Of every dkr of export income 0.51 dkr. is used on transfers, and of every dkr. of export income 0.66 dkr. is used on public running costs, mostly transfers and public wages.

Without further you conclude that the export income that we want to increase in order to make free scope for the financing on home front, is not officially expected to increase in the same rate as the public running costs and the public transfers.

The export is just used as an indicator here, and with this comparison it is relatively easy to compare the figures in this reading with the corresponding results in other countries that have done much better, Ireland, Iceland and the Czech Republic.

With 2,867,000 in the workforce in 2004 distributed on 594,192 unemployed and expelled, 874,500 public employees and about 1,400,000 in saleable production subtracted all in all 423,858 receivers of sickness- and childbirth benefits the society cannot continue to finance the welfare payments and also finance the needed expenditures concerning 1,224,331 pensioners and alike in reality outside the labour market. The last number even increases relatively and not just the intake, but also the workforce itself are expected to drop absolutely.

The official number in the workforce in period 2001-2005 has been reduced by more than 30,000. The official number outside the workforce has been increased by more than 50,000 in the same period. Even more distance between a smaller workforce and a increasing number in the ages of pension is expected. According to Erhvervsbladet 4 Marsh 2006 10 out of 14 Labour Market Councils estimate that the workforce will fall by 8,000 more in the year 2007. The Danish Welfare Commission prognosticated 350,000 fewer in the workforce and 400,000 more in the group of pensioners in the year 2040, if the parameters of development is maintained as today. This implies a budget deficit of about 100 bill. dkr. a year.

6 April 2006 Danish union of Employers reports that 50,000 will leave the labour market as pensioners and alike the next 4 years. Assumed their jobs are not filled by others, this implies a lost of income and lost a extra public expenditure of about 15 bill. dkr. a year in 4 years.

One thing is that the employees are expelled from workforce, another is that the scale of groups of ages is staggered substantial in the future caused by ageing and the lack of intake to the workforce – caused by the low birth rate since 1968, and later on the immigration that demonstrably three times as often as for the Danes leads to receivers of transfers from the young ages in even second and third generation: https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/11/04/six-goid-reasons-to-count-the-immigrants-in-europe-correctly#_ftn5 , according to the Danish Welfare Commission in Boersen 1 November 2005, and former Socialminister Henriette Kjær 1 May 2005, read below.

In the groups early pensioners cf. table 1 and other not-working in the ages 16-66 years cf. table 2 there were 863,277 of which about 100,000 treatment-demanding mentally ill, prostitutes, treatment-demanding alcoholics, drug-misusers and homeless, according to the Danish Welfare Commission, source: Analysis Report, May 2004, chapter 9.Immigrants and their later descendants in all generations are according to the Danish Welfare Commission represented 3 times as often when it comes to draw on the public sector, and the groups on early retirement also have surplus-representation compared with their share of the population.

The Rockwool Foundation reported in 2001 that 36 p.c. of the non-Western women in Denmark supply themselves on labour market; among the Danish women 72 p.c. supply themselves. I.e. 64 p.c. of the non-Western women are not disposal for the labour market. Of those about 13,000 did not receive public transfers, according to Ritzaus 10 Marsh 2005 (one year later, of course), but the rest received early retirement pension and alike. They are on the other hand underrepresented in the group of Folk-pensioners, and in the receiver group in between, where their share amount to about 10 p.c. against the Danes’ 22.6 p.c.

If we stick to the correction of foreigner account of 25 years on http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/uscan.html (most foreign foreigners about 13 p.c.), the share of most foreign immigrants and descendants among the unemployed and the expelled: 3 multiplied with about 13 p.c. equal about 40 p.c. This is their draw on the services and the payments. This figure was confirmed by former Social Minister Henriette Kjaer who reported this concerning the social security (cf. above).

[In addition third check of our correction to the number of foreigners in Denmark]

The estimated number of foreign receivers in the working ages, cf. table 1 and table 2: not less than : (594,142 + 269,235)*0.40 = 345,351

I.e. not less than 345,000 of the receivers of transfers in the working ages were immigrants and their descendants in 2004 [today more like 100,000 more], and 458,000 were Danes.

Increased saleable production and export – the system of welfare reformed
If the welfare as we have known it for 40 years, shall be preserved, the country necessary has to be prepared for the reorganization towards the strong international competition globally. The immigration is the liberal and international ideological part of. Therefore substantial changes have to be introduced. These changes must perhaps be bigger than changes from vegetable to animal production in the last half of the 1800s under the European agriculture crisis.

In reality the crisis then arose caused by the carrying capacity of American rails made possible by the new processes of performing hard steal. The freight rates a ton dropped immense, and lead to an advantage of competition for the American grain coming far away from the Midd West finally to be supplied in Europe at substantial lower prices on both bread grain and feeding grain. This had nothing to do with ideology. It was simply an invention. The PC was also an invention.

It will be almost impossible to make changes among the politicians as the VKR-government accepted the ideological welfare policy already in 1968, and also because no politician will risk his skin, and everybody knows it might be their turn to take responsibility of necessity after a change of government.

Therefore all will participate with small bits and aim at that the others to face the music, when the projects as here have long-term impacts. In addition more than 60 p.c. of voters are employed by the public, sent on daily benefits or social security.The system then continues until it dissolves itself – precisely like other ideological projects – or are stopped by the creditors.

You might expect small adjustments without any real impacts in the political space. And this will with mathematical certainty lead the country directly to the state’s bankruptcy, where the welfaresystem shall being abolished randomly stick by stick, when we assume that the war does not come, before quickly increasing deficits on the public budget are realized. At the same time we will experience falling export incomes, and the outsourcing will increase further caused by the neglected tax-decreased, even quicker wastage from the workforce coming from both the increase in the group of pensioner, the expelling from the workforce, and the lacking intake to the workforce in the other end.

The ideologists will continuing maintain that peace and no danger are ruling, and the last 20 p.c. will never discover/admit anything has happened, even after the war.

Nevertheless it must right to point at some ways that could save the system that a lot of people have got used to is ruling, and that among other things decide their rent. Some of it must be suggested dismantled, because the development has shown that it does not have the impacts they used as an argument including the benefits that was assumed when the system was arranged.

When it is officially maintained that the purpose of the ongoing (May 2006) agreement attempts concerning the welfare-negotiations unbalanced should be to get more individuals into the workforce, then it will just effect the yield of taxation in upward direction, and at the same time even increase the incentives to accept more immigration, i.e. and inflow at a higher speed.

Well then, the questions of globalization and of welfare has not been linked. This will undoubtedly be fateful. More tax-payments to finance the welfare do not solve any of the problems fundamentally. The complex of problems is even getting worse, as we shall see. Perhaps the catastrophe is being postponed a little, and this is in every case almost the longest engaged professional politicians a prepared to go in the thoughts and actions, when something big has to happen in their world building mostly on party loyalty fare from reality.

Let us take their words for granted: More to the workforce, i.e. more who supply themselves on the labour market than today. Does this implies more jobs in saleable production, or does it imply more public employed (is to answered below)

Areas of problems

1. Childbirths in Denmark:

a. In average the first child is born about the mother’s 28th years – hereafter we are in difficulties to get more children.

b. 15-20 p.c. of the women of age 40 in the Western countries have no children – this figure has increased substantially.

c. The number of abortions has recently risen again to more than 15,000 of a birth cohort of 68,000-70,000.

As b. concerns it is distinct characterizing for original European being unemployed or expelled from the labour market that they don’t dare to bear children.

2. Immigrants

3. European directives and recommendations

4. Welfare arrangements, generally

5. Educations and research

6. Income-tax reductions

The taxes have to cover the public expenditures. With increasing intake to group of more than 65 years old, and still fewer in the workforce caused by lacking childbirths and the expelling from the labour market it become impossible to get the yield of taxes to cover the public expenditures. Already in 2010 a deficit on budget of 40 bill. dkr.

If the taxes are increased, the total tax-base of which the taxes are accounted from, and also included in, will be decreased, because the saleable production and the export go down caused by the worsen status of competition.

This might seem like a problem corresponding to squaring the circle, but it is no, as the circle and the square has nothing to do with ideology.

The system of welfare in Denmark built on services and transfers as private right, but arranged with collective financing, so that the originators of the project imagined that individuals of the society should receive a little more from the society than they actually paid in taxes. This was of course nonsense, because the public cannot give you anything, before it has collected it via taxes[7], printed too many notes or borrowed the money. But we skip this detail. We look at the impacts of the way of thinking among the political leaders, and we try to give some instruction of where the system must be cleansed from ideology.

All welfare-ideology, liberalism, internationalism, keynesianism, Europeanism, all ideology must be removed from the ruling Danish welfare-system.

1. Childbirths:

It could given a try to effect the age in which the first child is born and effect the the number of women who give birth – “without sending the women anywhere”.

By the number of children could eventually be increased. The proposal from the government about varying transfers to individual in the education system could perhaps have an effect, even though the proposal in the open was made to increase the number of tax-payers by stimulating the students to finish the education earlier. When we know that a substantial but unknown amount of grants/scholarships are paid to young ones who speculate in these payments, and often change their study with pleasure to maintain the payments, you could say that the arrangement have the same effect as supplementary social security in a number of cases. Some new regulations are not expected to be without effects here, perhaps more is needed (read below).

One proposal of how the number of childbirths can be increased among unemployed and expelled individuals of more than 30 years of age, is to transfer a public payment according to the difference between their present payment and the lowest wage on the labour market for five years, when they give birth to their first child after the mothers 29th year. The payment is effective for both parents.

Total expenditures in connection with abortion that does not have medical or criminal indication must be collected from the miscarrying herself or from the father to the child.

Public measured out and assigned gifts to families with children do increase the incentive to give birth among childless, or gifts to elderly or other marginal groups of voters who could threaten a coming election. This does have any other

explanation than distribution-political causes. In Turkey and Thailand they distribute kitchen-machines before the election. There is not much difference. All these public assigned gifts must re-arranged to lower taxes, that increases the demand for the workforce in an increasing saleable production.

2. Immigrants

When 40 p.c. of the unemployed and expelled in the working ages in Denmark belong to a part-population that amount to 13 p.c. totally, it is difficult even for the Danish Welfare Commission to find solutions to financing-problem for the welfare system by manipulating this very large part of the problem in 2006 after 25 years of mass-immigration to be a central part of the solution to the problem in the future.

In other of the government’s thinktanks it is much easier to do so.

The immigration still increased from 11,369 new in 2004 to 12,644 new foreign citizens in 2005, of which 9.730 came from areas outside Western Europe, North America, Israel, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

2006 Free immigration:
No doubt, the liberalism will also have concessions after the international has harvested the most of yield from immigration for the last 25 years:

Already before the election in 2001 a so-call green-card-arrangement was introduced. It implies a maximum tax rate of 25 p.c. of the earning for the first three years for foreign, high-educated key-employees. With this taxation the concerned get the same rights and the same admission to the public financed Danish welfare as the Danes who of course must pay the full price. Even such a high price that our saleable products cannot be produced and sold in sufficient amount to finance the welfare in the future. So, you see the leading figures certainly do know what is wrong
Documentation: http://www.workindenmark.dk/ Taxation/0/1/0

The arrangement has shown itself not to have the intended effects. The reason must be found in the fact that the qualified began immigrating to USA and England in the beginning of the 1980s.

In the spring of 2006 a new arrangement is being introduced that permits immigrants without further to cross the border to Denmark and look for a job for 6 month, without any formal application. Uncles, cousins, brothers-in-law are already here.

With Danish voters NO by referendum twice to more EU the Danish politicians compete to secure that Denmark accept the coming EU-rules beforehand:

3. EU-directives and recommendations

First step

Interior market 1986 with four freedoms, where products, services, capital and workforce could move freely between the member states from 1. January 1993. All EU-citizens.

Second step

Schengen co-operation was decided in 1985 and lead actual to co-operation with Amsterdam-treaty coming into force 1 May 1999. Every border control inside EU was removed. Citizens from other parts of the world in principle got the same right to move around freely. Common minimum rules and regulation of immigration must secure that one member-state not just transfer its burdens to the other member state.

Third step:

25 November 2003 where EU-directive was decided: about status of the third-world-immigrants as residents after five years unbroken and legal stay in EU were given free movement in EU too.

Next step

11 January 2005 EU-Commission published a so-called greenbook about the method to manage the economic migration (between member states with e.g. different economic policy) in order to get common rules. A point of view that was strengthened two month later by the publication of another greenbook with the title: ‘Demografic changes – need for a new solidarity between generations’.
7 November 2005 the Commissioner for Justice and Interior Matters, the Italian Franco Fratinni, a USA inspired Green Card-system that gives high educated from the whole world the possibility to gain access and permission to work in all member states.

In need of common EU-immigration-policy

Tammerfors-declaration 1999, point 18:

The European Union must secure a more justice treatment of third-world-citizens who have taken legal residence in EU. A more effective integration-policy that admits rights and duties that can be compared with those of EU-citizens, and it continues with a Holy Hymn about racism, different treatment, economics, culturel and social relations.

A directive in the summer 2001: About conditions for third-world-citizens’ entry and stay in connection with employment as employees and practicing independent businesses.

Marsh 2004: EU-Directive about the conditions for third-world-citizens entry and stay in connection with studies, other education or apprentice, also called the students’ directive.

A directive: October 2005 the Council decided a directive about special entry-procedure for third-world-citizens in connection with scientific investigation and two other recommendations.

How to go on:

A road map with initiatives to be proposed in the period 2006-2009.

According the refused EU-Constitution (section 51-54) a decided road map meant that the politicians in the member-states practically were not independent as the Danish Constitution strongly presupposes they definitely are in it’s section 56. Practically a road map meant/mean that the politicians were/are bound by this road map declaration, and that they even had/have to work for the realization of the scheduled decisions, and certainly not decide otherwise in their national legislation until the final decision could be made.

The solution is not difficult to see. It just assumes to overcome the ideological scruples. But this task perhaps cannot be overcome before the light has been turned off over Europe.

4. Welfare arrangements, generally

The arrangement for transfer-receivers in between early retirement and Folk-pensioners was introduced with an argument that hard physical worn-out on the labour market created a need for early gradually transition to the a pensioner’s life, and in addition it was maintained that this arrangement would substantial reduce the unemployment/expelling among young ones. The arrangement has especially been used by school teachers, pedagogists and library-employees. With increasing duration of life and an transition in progress to generally lesser physical demanding work, the arrangement has become a general early retirement arrangement that already exists.

It benefits to increase the age-limit for folk-pensioners corresponding to the projection of the longer life time.

Public finance of cancellation of debt to unemployed and expelled to make it worth to earn money again will certainly be useful. Especially in country where you are heavily run down, if you loose your job and have debt at the same time.

Different leave arrangements that e.g. give freedom for parents from work in about a year just make the production more expensive without any other ideological aim/need is satisfied. That small businesses do not dare to hire young women in the birth-giving ages must be understood. They almost have to hire and pay for two to get one.

5. Educations and research

are extremely central to get arranged realistic. Ideology has replaced teaching in disciplines of tools and of basic skills. It is quickly becoming a catastrophe.

In the areas ‘education’, ‘health’, and ’social care’ 630,000 or 22 p.c. of the total workforce employed in 2001 (according to the Danish Welfare Commission). Precisely how many in each of three sectors and the distribution between kinds of institutions and sizes measured by number of clients, pupils, students, patients is not available information to throw light on. Taken into account that the area has more than doubled since 1960, even accounted by the percentage it takes up of the total GNP we have to have this kind of informations, that might make us able to account some measures of productivity (achievement divided with the amount of resources) and measures of effectivity (objectives related to resources).

Primo April 2005 DR-text-tv reported that education of the children amounts to 30 p.c. of the working hours of Folk-school teachers: This situation has been prepared and created by lots of changed school laws and the union’s agreements of common consent for more decades. It started much higher, not by chance, and was continued for 40 years in Denmark by both liberal and formally more socialistic originators as useful political marionets. It started with basic values of life that had to be changed. The parents was not fit for upbringing, if they did not accepted ideologists’ values. Later on we had to hear the excuse that the pedagogists and the teachers had to take over the upbringer’s role. The parents were actually not fit, if they had not attended a targeting course organized by the knowing masters of mind control: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/revo.html (in Danish). The whole history: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/engeune.html
(in English) and http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/wu.html (in English)

Now you perhaps better understand why Dutch 9 years old school pupils are educated twice as much at half the costs. Or take some other areas: About 10 p.c. of the students drop out from the higher educations, and the yearly intake on the engineer educations in Denmark has decreased with 50 p.c. from 1985 to 1995[8].

Without detailed accounts of distributed resources and individuals you cannot exposure the problems. 11 April 2005 TV2-News reported that 57 p.c. of the Folk-school teachers who teaches in the subject ‘Danish’ had not chosen ‘Danish’ in their education on the college of education, and according to this 97 p.c. of those who teaches in the nature subjects and subjects of technology the same. The most demented is that we did not get this information long before the school actually broke down. That pupils learn the ideology is a central part of the basis evaluation to find out which pupils who are doing well, and who are doing unsatisfactory right from the kindergartens and the Folk-school.

Knowledge and competences must be brought in front:
If Denmark shall have a chance in these years with reflaging, there have to concentrated whole-hearted and consequently on knowledge and competences that can bring us in front in Western world. The workforce to take care of the growing elderly-part in the population will never become a problem. The second most dangerous development we witnessed for two generations now is the teachers’ – especially in the upper secondary school (gymnasium) – reproduction of their own irrelevant competences that mostly are not business-relevant at all, if we shall survive as civilized nation. It is not better in the Folk-school, but here we have to concentrate on Danish, English, German, mathematic, biology, economics, data and history, because it is not possible to replace large parts of the teachers’ staff here, and at the same time find a development-carrying substitute that will make the pupils fit for a new the upper secondary school.

The means to rectify the imbalance in 3-5 years are in the comparative advantages that Denmark should have utilized on education area at once in 1960s instead of letting young unknowing people decide, where to go with everything using other people’s money with good help from some of the so-called modern teachers in the upper secondary school. We have to import relevant education systems and textbooks (eventually translated them) from Ireland, Holland, England, Germany and USA, and perhaps hire a few teachers from these nations to key positions here.

USA began to tackle the questions of globalization action oriented already in the beginning of the 1980s: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/curint.htm. England did the same.

Ireland’s production was half of the Danish production in 1970. Today Ireland’s production per inhabitant is 10 p.c. larger than the Danish.

Regardless if we shall see the welfare system break gradually down because of impossible finances, perhaps with a last grasp for inflation formally outside the Euro-zone, and just for as long EU has not stopped it, we can expect more cheap import products with an education and research sector, where 2 of 3 educated still turn their eyes towards the public sector in a country where a steady growing part of the population refered to public assigned transfers as their conditions of life. Exchange of products and factors included knowledge with the wage-light areas will be topical for years to come towards the end.

A long row of the humanities educations must simply have a very low or no intake of students. And if it cannot succeed to break down the ideology on what the free choice of education leads to after years influence from teachers in the upper secondary school, there have to be introduced an education-duty corresponding to the total costs of education and a stop for assigning public grants to education that will not give any employment in the saleable production sector, and just by natural resignation in lot years to come.

The public financed grants could be removed and replaced by loans, just like a duty might be introduced to cover the total costs. Grants and so-called free education is generous and unequal, partly because a lot of educated do not get employment with their choice of education, partly because those who do not take a higher education actually pay for the education that even pay off a substantial higher wage. You can just give reasons for this by including élite-thinking. At the same time our plants of production are being consumed to it’s own destruction or reflaged away.

The repay of the private costs of education might follow an annuity loan of 20 years’ duration[9].

6. Income-tax-reduction

The wages have to be reduced with 30-35 p.c. [10]. The income tax can be changes to a kind of source taxation, when it come to wage a proportional wage-tax collected directly and finally at the source as an wage sum tax, paid directly by the employers, primery to remove the tax control[11]

The yield from wage sum tax has to be reduced with an amount corresponding to a available wage increase of about 2-3 p.c. The coporation tax must be reduced at least to the Irish level, and this could be the only tax on businesses. The different contributions on the wage-pay slip apart from pension savings are being gathered after a reduction with 50 p.c. in one contribution to an indiviualized education foundation.

All daily benefits, transfers, supports and pensions must be paid as tax free amounts.

This will imply some public budget deficits the first years, but as the arrangement attracts a lot advanced businesses the drop in tax yield will fully be replaced within 10 years, because capital will be injected into production sector, the opposite of what is happening now, where it is drained to the last drop of capital, and therefore clear out looking for cost savings. The result will be a dominating sector of knowledge based production with high educated and well-paid employees.

A lot new business and an increased production in the existing businesses are the results. This will automatically draw the workforce into employment and create purchacing-power to so-called welfare . Here the turning of world in the universe is followed. That a mental turning of the pole also is needed nobody shall doubt. 40 years with the pyramid turned upside down by ideology.

“Now back to reality” we might call this project after 40 years in Danish Utopia.

6 May 2006
M. Sc. (Economics) Joern E. Vig


[1] To start with they were operating with a weak deficit-budgetting that citizens experienced the first 10 years, where the inflation gradually increased substantially, and the lending rate rose to about 22 p.c. in 1979. Notice that the welfare system came to the first test in this decade, where two oil-price-chocks hit in 1974 with more than 400 p.c. and in 1979 with less. They were called the reasons to the mass-unemployment from 1973. This definitely was not the truth.

[2] 2,05 – 2,10 child a woman is needed to overcome the infant mortality and the reproduction to secure a stable population in the Western communities.

[3] I addition the transfers amounted to 20 p.c. in 1960 and 44 p.c. in 2001 of GNP; the last mentioned percent even accounted on the basis of tripled GNP – the triple is partly unrealistic as the ideology was built into the national account e.g. so that public consumption was artificial transformed to be production instead.

[4] The number of employees in the public sector rised from 406,000 in 1960 to 844,000, 874,500 or 925,410 in 2004 (of a workforce of 2.87 mill in 2004). The number differs depending on if you look at the different accounts of the state published by http://www.dst.dk or you look at the account of ATP-foundation.

[5] How large a share of this group that actually is fit for the Danish labour market or rather belongs to another labour market that they have left is not easy to spell out and publish information about via the available public statistics.

[6] This was the coherent social statistics from mentioned source. In New from Denmark’s Statistics nr. 22 of 2 February 2006 the unemployment is reported converted to fulltime unemployed from 573,100 in 2004 and 543,100 in 2005 that converted allegedly amounts
to respectively 176,400 and 157,400 fulltime unemployed – here counted as unemployed members of unemployment fund.

[7] To start with they were operating with a weak deficit-budgetting that citizens experienced the first 10 years, where the inflation gradually increased substantially, and the lending rate rose to about 22 p.c. in 1979. Notice that the welfare system came to the first test in this decenium, where two oil-price-chocks came in 1974 with more than 400 p.c. and in 1979 with less. They were called the reasons to the mass-unemployment from 1973. This definitely was not the whole truth.

[8] E.g. mathematics of vectors that is the basic of electronics and advanced physics was abolished already in the beginning of the 1980s in the upper secondary school (gymnasium) with reference to that the recruited pupils in the upper secondary schools found the subject too difficult. Now you do not find the Danish word ‘vektor’ in the dictionary when you will try to translate from Danish to English.

[9] It was fateful from the start to give free entry to the educations, and even do so by letting almost all the costs of education be tax-financed. In UN the answer to the public U-90-report from 1960s: ‘You must be able to afford it’. There is a chance to get rid of this ideology-element now, but it will certainly meet tremendous resistance among the young ones who understand this element as a well-acquired right, almost limited to a nature law, even though it has been ruling just on the cost of the other half of the population that do not take a higher education.

[10] Not in order to compete with the wage-light areas about the wage-heavy productions, but because our products are too expensive to be sold in sufficient amounts to repay the statedebt and at the same time create new job in the sector of saleable production. This is the task.

[11] It has been proven more than 25 years ago that all progression in the taxation scale depending on height of income has no meaning. The progression is being fully equalized by larger deductions in the income from which to calculate the tax.

Europæisk-Arabiske Dialog

https://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/11/14/ny-alliance-i-smaat-og-stort/https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/06/13/fjenden-har-opbygget-europa-h%c3%a6r/https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/06/13/fjenden-har-opbygget-europa-h%c3%a6r/Information om Danmark:

Den Europæisk-Arabiske dialog fra 1978 kører express på skinner

Nacka den 21 februari 2006

Med anledning av en kolumn av Mats Tunehag på Världen Idags ledarsida “Tyranniet begär förtroende” den 20 februari skulle jag vilja att Världen Idag tar upp EU:s s k “Medelhavssamarbete, MEDA” eller “Barcelonaprocessen” Inom ramen för denna har EU – och därmed den svenska regeringen – sedan många år ett väl utvecklat samarbete med ett drygt tiotal muslimska arabstater. Möjligen slår jag in öppna dörrar, men med tanke på hur litet känt detta samarbete verkar vara tar jag risken.. Jag skall också skicka en fränare version till Freivalds så fort jag hinner med ett antal relevanta frågor!

Man kan fundera över den kompakta tystnaden i media när det gäller EU:s sydutvidgning! Redan när jag för flera år sedan först fick höra talas om detta omfattande samarbete med arabstater frågade jag bl a de politiska redaktionerna på DN, SvD, SVT och SR vad tystnaden berodde på. Men fick aldrig något svar.

Man kan också fundera över är varför vi inte fick veta något om EU:s samarbete med arabvärlden i samband med folkomröstningen om EU-medlemskapet. Inte ens nej-sidan tog upp detta. Kände de inte till det omfattande samarbetet? Detta är fullt möjligt. När jag för ett par år sedan skickade en fråga ang detta till Björn von der Esch ringde han upp mig och frågade var jag fått alla uppgifter om Barcelonaprocessen från. Detta samarbete var helt nytt t o m för honom! Jag svarade att han kunde få uppgifter från UD eller på sin egen arbetsplats dvs Riksdagshuset! Han skulle – sade han – “sätta någon kollega på att leta fram information”. I den utrikespolitiska debatten den 13 maj 2004 (2003?) ställde A-L Enochsson, kd en fråga om Barcelonaprocessen – och regeringens samarbete med och förtroende för tyrannier – till utrikesminister Freivalds som svarade med de vanliga klyschorna: “Fru talman! Det är en bra fråga. Demokrati finns inte överallt i vår värld. Det finns ett stort demokratiunderskott på många håll. Sverige har under mycket lång tid varit engagerat just i att stödja de krafter som ändå finns på många håll i världen och som vill ha demokrati. Det är rörelser av olika slag och enskilda organisationer. Det gäller också att samarbete direkt med dem som har makten och som visar en viss vilja till en dialog och en förståelse och att även stödja dem i deras arbete.

När det gäller Mellanöstern har EU ett utvecklat samarbete med de närliggande länderna runt Medelhavet och även längre bort inom ramen för det som kallas Barcelonaprocessen. Det gäller även våra grannländer och de projekten. Detta syftar i stor utsträckning till att utveckla samarbetet mellan Europa och Mellanöstern, både i ekonomiskt och socialt avseende, Naturligtvis är en grundförutsättning att det ska leda i demokratisk riktning och ske med respekt för mänskliga rättigheter. Det är en central fråga för hela EU att använda alla de instrument som står till EU:s förfogande – ekonomiska, politiska och sociala – i en dialog med den här världen för att påverka i demokratisk riktning.”

Sedan dess har det varit knäpp tyst medan samarbetet hela tiden utvidgas och utvecklas. Associeringsavtalet med Syrien är färdigförhandlat medan förhandlingar fortfarande pågår med Libyen.

Fatwor, hotelser och bojkotter

Det som nu förtjänar att påpekas är att det nära samarbetet fortsätter i det tysta medan det utfärdas fatwor, hotelser och bojkotter mot Danmark, danska medborgare och danska varor och europeiska ambassader och beskickningar stormas och bränns ner bl a i Syrien och Libanon. Inom ramen för Barcelonaprocessen skänker EU miljardbelopp i bidrag till dessa länder. Hur rimligt detta är kan man – om man vill – eventuellt fundera över!

MEDA:s budget uppgick under perioden 1995-2002 till 5 731 miljoner euro. 86% av summan gick till bilateralt samarbete med Algeriet, Egypten, Jordanien, Libanon, Marocko, Syrien, Tunisien, Turkiet och den Palestinska myndigheten och resten till regionala aktiviteter. För perioden 2000-2006 uppgår budgeten för MEDA 2 till 5 350 miljoner euro. Under samma period skall EIB låna ut drygt 6 425 miljoner euro. till arabstaterna: “The EIB is to lend up to EUR 6 425 million during the period 2000-06 supplemented by EUR 1 billion of its own resources.” Vad som menas med “supplemented by EUR 1 billion of its own resources” förstår jag inte.

Kraven på respekt för demokrati och mänskliga rättigheter – hur uppfylls de?

I portalparagrafen för EU:s samarbete med arabstaterna finns kraven på “respekt för demokratins och rättsstatens principer samt för mänskliga rättigheter och grundläggande friheter” inskrivet. Dessutom föreskrivs att EU kan vidta sanktioner mot de länder som inte uppfyller dessa grundläggande förutsättningar. EU har så vitt jag vet inte vidtagit några åtgärder p g a det sätt Danmark behandlats av EU:s samarbetsparter i arabvärlden!

Europeiska skattemiljarder pumpas in i Syrien

EU:s frikostighet med de europeiska skattebetalarnas pengar känner uppenbarligen inga gränser när det gäller Syrien och de övriga arabstaterna. Att länderna inte respekterar demokrati och mänskliga rättigheter utgör inget hinder för samarbetet varken för EU eller för den svenska regeringen. Tvärtom. Enligt ett PM 2005-09-20 Landsrapport från Syrien” från svenska ambassaden i Damaskus “strävar Sverige efter att utveckla de kommersiella relationerna med Syrien.”

Enligt samma PM är Syrien “en sekulär republik av auktoritär karaktär och konstitutionen stadgar att presidenten måste vara muslim och slår fast Baathpartiets överordnade ställning i landets styre . /…/ Ledande personer från terroristlistade palestinska organisationer tillåts vistas i Syrien.

Enligt ett PM från UD Mänskliga rättigheter i Syrien 2005 “förekommer det trakasserier av journalister, liksom censur, inklusive av internet” – m a o precis som i Sverige! Regimen kontrollerar de flesta inhemska media. Självcensur är vanligt förekommande.

“Syriens enda icke-statliga politiska diskussionssalong Attasi Forum stängdes 2005. /…/ Rättssäkerheten försämras av förekomsten av ett stort antal inflytelserika säkerhetstjänster, säkerhets- och militärdomstolar och en utbredd korruption. Politiska aktiviteter som ifrågasätter eller syftar till att ändra rådande system tolereras inte. /…/ Varken parlaments- eller presidentvalen kan betraktas som fria.”

Den som söker statlig anställning måste ha säkerhetstjänstens godkännande etc etc.

FN:s konvention om mänskliga rättigheter och barnkonvention

“Syrien har tillträtt majoriteten av de centrala MR-konventionerna, dock i vissa fall med omfattande reservationer. FN:s MR-kommitté har uttryckt oro över att dödsstraff och verkställande av avrättningar återinfördes 2002. Kommittén är även oroad över rapporter om att allvarlig tortyr förekommer i samband med frihetsberövanden. /…/ Sharialagen verkar i flera fall diskriminerande mot kvinnor. /…/ Lagen förutser strafflindring vid hedersmord och straffrihet för våldtäktsmän som gifter sig med sitt offer.”

Syrien har gjort en generell reservation till FN:s Konvention om avskaffande av alla former av diskriminering av kvinnor, CEDAW och till FN:s barnkonvention, CRC “i den mån de inte är i överensstämmelse med nationell lagstiftning och den muslimska shariarätten.” Hur kan den svenska regeringen godkänna sådan reservationer? Vad säger JämO? Jämställdhetsminister Orback? BO Lena Nyberg?

EU:s associationsavtal med Syrien

EU har sedan 1998 förhandlat med Syrien om ett associationsavtal inom ramen för EU:s Medelhavssamarbete, MEDA eller Barcelonaprocessen. I oktober 2004 nåddes ett principbeslut om ett associeringsavtal, där “bl a frihandel, politisk dialog och mänskliga rättigheter är viktiga komponenter.”

EU är Syriens största biståndsgivare. Inom ramen för MEDA-programmet har den syriska regimen – redan innan avtalet ratificerats – fått 259 miljoner euro i bistånd och 580 miljoner euro i lån från Europeiska Investeringsbanken, EIB. Inom programmet National Indicative Programme har regimen dessutom fått 80 miljoner euro för 2005-06. I dessa ingår de 18 miljoner euro “som är villkoret för Syriens undertecknande av avtalet.”

EU har också åtagit sig att bistå Syrien med 500 000 euro för miljöprogrammen LIFE LOCUS-programmet och 18 miljoner euro för Municipal Administration Programme samt 8 miljoner euro för ett program för vatten och avlopp.

EU har vidare bidragit med 27 miljoner euro till The Syrian-European Business Centre, SEBC och stöd till syrianska SME – dvs små och medelstora företag. EU har dessutom lovat 15 miljoner euro som stöd för ytterligare ett “SME-support programme.”

På sidan 20 i “The Bilateral Dimension” poängteras under rubriken “A more far-reaching association agreement” att EU:s samarbete med Syrien har bidragit till att etablera ett förhållande som bygger på förtroende och tillit – “a relationship of trust and confidence…”

Utöver Sveriges bidrag till det gigantiska stödet till den syriska regimen via EU bidrar Sverige också genom FN och med bilateralt stöd via Sida till ett “kontraktsfiansierat tekniskt samarbete, KTS” med Syrien. Syrien är även del av Sida:s regionala MENA-program – Middle East and North Africa.


I Beirut satte 20 000 islamister eld på det danska konsulatet. Tiovåningshuset var totalt utbränt. Av de 160 som gripits var 75 syrier, 35 palestinier, 15 personer saknade pass och var av okänd nationalitet och 35 libanesiska medborgare. En vecka senare demonstrerade hundratusentals shiamuslimer i Beirut och visade bl a upp en dansk flagga där flaggans kristna kors förvandlats till ett hakkors. Demonstranterna bar på slagord som “Profetens land accepterar inte EU:s förolämpningar.” Men de ekonomiska bidragen har de inga problem att acceptera!

EU:s associeringsavtal med Libanon

Sedan 1977 har den Europeiska Gemenskapen haft ett samarbetsavtal med Libanon inom ramen för den dåvarande Arabisk-europeiska Dialogen. I associeringsavtalet från 2002 välkomnade den libanesiska regeringen progammen “the European Neighbourhood Policy” och “the European Neighbourhood Action Plan, NAP.” Planen syftar till en förstärkning av en strävan mot gemensamma värderingar när det gäller demokrati och lagstiftning – “the rule of law”, rättstillämpning och respekt för mänskliga rättigheter, vissa aspekter på säkerhetspolitik och ett närmande mellan EU och Libanon på ett antal prioriterade områden.”

” EU – den Europeiska Gemenskapen, dess medlemstater och Europeiska Investeringsbanken, EIB – är Libanons ledande biståndsgivare.” Sedan 1995 har Libanon fått 256 miljoner euro inom ramen för MEDA-biståndet. Sedan 1978 har EIB ställt 479 miljoner euro till den libanesiska regeringens förfogande. Dessutom har EU-kommissionens “Humanitarian Office, ECHO bidragit med ett substantiellt bistånd till de palestinska flyktingarna i Libanon via libanesiska och europeiska Non Governmental Organisations, NGO:s. Uppgift om summan saknas i regeringens PM.

För 2005-06 har The National Indicative Programme en planerad budget på 50 miljoner euro för bistånd till den syriska regimen.

EU:s associeringsavtal med Jordanien

Associeringsavtalet med Jordanien har varit i kraft sedan 2002. Sedan 1995 har EU har skänkt den jordanska regeringen över 650 miljoner euro inom ramen för MEDA.


Också palestinierna biter den hand som föder dem. 30 beväpnade män hotade att attackera en fransk skola i Nablus om de inte fick en ursäkt från Europas ledare. Nordbor hotades i våldsamma demonstrationer i Ramallah. I Gaza brändes danska flaggor. Hot mot Sverige framfördes till svenska generalkonsultatet. Hotet bortförklarades med att “en palestinsk utbrytargrupp gjort ett misstag.” “Utbrytargruppen” var al-Aqsamartyrerna dvs Fatahs väpnade gren. “Utbrytargruppen” krävde bl a att “alla svenskar och danskar som existerar Palestinas jord har 48 timmar på sig att ge sig av annars…” “Annars…”? “Annars tar vi inte emot ert bistånd ” eller vad??!

“Utbrytargruppen” spred flygblad med uppgiften att “danskar och svenskar under beskydd av sina regeringar har satt upp affischer som kränker profeten Mohammed.” I flygbladen uppmanades den palestinska myndigheten att “deportera alla utlänningar tills deras länders inställning klargjorts” och att bojkotta alla kontakter med Danmark och Sverige. Den svenske konsuln i Jerusalem Nils Eliasson sade till DN att “vi tar hoten på största allvar och uppmanar alla svenskar att lämna både Gaza och Västbanken eftersom hotet inte är geografiskt begränsat.”

EU-kommissionens högkvarter i Gaza City ockuperades av en grupp beväpnade män från al-Yassirbrigaderna, en grupp med nära anknytning till Fatahs al-Aqsamartyrer.

EU:s associeringsavtal med den palestinska myndigheten

Ett interimistiskt associeringsavtal med den palestinska myndigheten, PA undertecknades den 24 februari 1997 och trädde i kraft den 1 juli samma år.

2002 skänkte EU inom ramen för MEDA-biståndet över 270 miljoner euro i ekonomiskt stöd till den palestinska myndigheten. Myndigheten fick ytterligare 50 miljoner euro i slutet på 2002 p g a den “förvärrade situationen.”

Utöver MEDA-biståndet har den palestinska myndigheten, PA fått 281 miljarder euro av EU plus lika mycket från enskilda EU-länder i bistånd.

År 2000 fick den palestinska myndigheten av EU-kommissionen 100 miljoner euro i direkt budgetstöd “för att rädda myndigheten från ekonomisk kollaps

För några år sedan fick PLO 800 mkr av den svenska regeringen som “kompensation för uteblivna löner när Israel stängde sina gränser” Regeringen ger alltså a-kassa till araber! År 2004 fick PA 273 444 000 kr av den svenska regeringen. Fram till Hamas valseger uppgick ju det svenska bidraget till 275 miljoner kr/år.

Med kännedom om den omfattande korruptionen inom PA och PLO kan man ju undra vart pengarna tagit vägen eftersom de fattiga är lika fattiga som tidigare!

Frågan är alltså: varför är Barcelonaprocessen så känslig? Är ansvariga politiker rädda för folkets vrede om det kommer ut hur många miljarder skattekronor som satsas på arabvärlden? Till ingen nytta.

Möjligen borde EU och den svenska regeringen begrunda den franske 1500-talsfilosofen Michel de Montaignes kloka ord. “Vid randen av en avgrund finns blott en sak att göra: ta ett steg tillbaka.”

Med vänliga hälsningar

Inger-Siv Mattson, pensionerad f d internationell sekreterare vid ett statligt forskningsråd Alphyddevägen 55, 131 35 Nacka


26. februar 2006 overførte EU 120 mill. Euro svarende til $143 mill. til det palæstinensiske selvstyre, der ledes af Hamas, efter USA og Israel har indefrosset til deres overførsler til styret. Begrundelsen skulle angiveligt være at at tilskyde til fredsbestræbelser…og ikke lytte for meget til Iran.

Information om Danmark har nogle få link med henvisninger til centrale oplysninger i ovenstående artikel:

Den Europæisk-Arabiske Dialog omtalt på bl.a. : https://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/11/14/ny-alliance-i-smaat-og-stort/

Penge til terror?: http://news.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=400992004

Fjenden har opbygget hær i Europa: https://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/06/13/fjenden-har-opbygget-europa-h%c3%a6r/

Hvor langt er vi ude?: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/islamfu.html

Tolerance på konference – ”det er dansk” : http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/konf/index.html

Ny konvention skal styre vores kultur : http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/kul.html

Grundlaget for sammenligninger udviskes

Grundlaget for sammenligninger udviskes mere og mere
– de officielle opgørelses- og analysemetoder af befolkningsforholdene indrettes alle til det

Med et stadigt voksende antal fremmede i Danmark foretages en række sammenlignende opgørelser og analyser. Allerede her skal man være opmærksom på at sammenligninger kan falde forkert ud i forhold til, hvad man kunne ønske sig. Der kan være forkerte eller direkte urimelige sammenligninger. De sidste bør undgås.

I officielt regi diskuteredes i begyndelsen af 2005 om offentligheden skal præsenteres for sammenlignende kriminalitets-opgørelser fremover, og om disse opgørelser eventuelt skal offentliggøres hvert år eller kun hvert andet år.

Ledighedens opgørelse:

Jævnligt oplyses om ledigheden blandt fremmede og blandt danskere. Her er det blevet almindeligt at holde modtagere af bistandshjælp uden for ledighedsopgørelserne, i opgørelserne af såvel ledige fremmede som ledige danske. Strømmen til gruppen af udstødte på bistandshjælp øges ellers, når den periode, ved ændret lovgivning, du skal være i arbejde som medlem af en arbejdsløshedskasse for at være dagpengeberettiget, gøres længere. Det samme er tilfældet, når tilsvarende den periode, du kan oppebære dagpengeret som ledig, gøres kortere.

Vil det sige, at politikerne eksempelvis lovgiver og fejloptæller sig bevidst væk fra ledigheden? Ja, formålet kan ofte være noget andet, men det er en af konsekvenserne.

Ledigheden opgøres i princippet som den procentdel antallet af ledige medlemmer af arbejdsløshedskasse udgør af den samlede arbejdsstyrke – som er den del af befolkningen, der står til rådighed for arbejdsmarkedet. Således er børn og unge under uddannelse eller pensionister selvsagt ikke at finde i arbejdsstyrken. Danskerne har en meget stor andel af befolkningen i arbejdsstyrken, i 2001 76 pct. Vi kunne læse i stort opsat reportage i Berlingske Tidende 18/8 2001 at danske mænd havde en ledighed på 4 pct., og de danske kvinder en ledighed på 5 pct.

Faktisk var den procentandel som alle de ledige udgjorde af arbejdsstyrken 3-4 gange større, når bistandsklienterne medregnedes korrekt:

Dette er gennemgået i detaljer på:http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/led/index.html

Når ledigheden blandt ikke-vestlige indvandrere opgøres, kan resultaterne blive både det ene og det andet. Rockwool Fonden skrev herom: ”I 2001 var 44 pct. af de voksne ikke-vestlige indvandrere i job, mod 33 pct. i 1994. Indvandrernes beskæftigelsesfrekvens i 2001 er dog kun godt halvdelen af danskernes på 76 pct., og deres beskæftigelsesfrekvens er også væsentligt dårligere end for et par tiår siden”.

Lad os oversætte dette:

D.v.s. 56 pct. af ikke-vestlige indvandrere var ledige i 2001, mod 67 pct. i 1994…
plus mange flere blandt de ikke-vestlige indvandrere, hvoraf kun cirka 38-40 pct. altså var med i arbejdsstyrken, resten (60-62%) var ikke børn og unge under uddannelse eller pensionister uden for arbejdsmarkedet. 0-24 årige indvandrere og efterkommere udgjorde omkring 41 pct. og pensionisterne 7 pct. af hele denne indvandregruppe, i alt 48 pct. i 2003.

Hvis vi forudsætter, at indvandrerne opholder sig i Danmark på samme betingelser som danskerne, var forskellen fra 38-40 pct. og optil 76 pct. også ledige eller i alt fald 60 pct.- 44,5 pct. = 15,5 pct. eller 17,5 pct. skal lægges til de 56 pct.

D.v.s. mindst 3 ud af 4 ikke-vestlige indvandrere var ledige, på kommunal aktivering eller førtidspensionerede. Andelen som ikke-vestlige indvandrere havde i arbejdsstyrken i 2001, er endog blevet væsentligt reduceret siden 1981.

D.v.s flere og flere ikke-vestlige indvandrere er blevet bistandsklienter og førtidspensionerede. Det samme gælder for danskerne, fordi der ikke reelt er meget andet end nedgang, og tiden der går.

For ikke-vestlige indvandrekvinder har vi ikke anført nogle specifikke ledighedstal, men beskæftigelsesfrekvensen (andelen af alle ikke-vestlige indvandrekvinder i arbejdsstyrken) er langt lavere, og ledigheden blandt disse kvinder meget højere end blandt de ikke-vestlige indvandrede mænd.

Sammenlignende kriminalitet:

Ved opgørelsen af kriminaliteten indløber optællinger fra landets politikredse. Rigspolitiet foretager derefter den landsdækkende samlede opgørelse af antallet af kriminelle gerninger i form af sigtelser og siden domfældelser. Disse kriminelle gerninger opdeles i bl.a. hovedgerningskategorier efter de love der er overtrådt, og ned i flere detaljer alt efter kriminalitetens karakter.

Nu kan der anlægges forskellige synspunkter på, hvorledes disse antalsopgørelser af den samlede kriminalitet skal sættes i forhold til eksempelvis kriminalitetens udøvere, til aldersgrupperne blandt disse og til befolkningen som helhed. Antallet af kriminelle personer og deres aldersfordeling inden de forskellige hovedgerningskategorier kan for eksempel være af interesse for senere efterforskning af tilsvarende forbrydelser og også af interesse i det forebyggende arbejde for at hindre fremtidig kriminalitet.

Vil man kunne sammenligne kriminaliteten mellem indvandrerne og danskerne, kan flere forhold inddrages for at sikre at det billede, der tegnes er realistisk. Kriminaliteten er mest udbredt blandt de unge og yngre mennesker. Derfor er det ikke overraskende, at ”indvandrere” og deres ”efterkommere” (i 1. generation) i Danmarks Statistiks opgørelser pr. 1. januar 1998 og 2003 viser at 40,3 pct. henholdsvis 52,2 pct. var under 30 år. Herved kommer de til at veje tungt i opgørelserne, når danskernes andel under 30 år på de pågældende tidspunkter var henholdsvis 37,7 pct. og 36,6 pct. Danskerne skal dog ikke tage ansvar for de ikke-vestlige indvandreres kriminalitet. Årsagen til de ikke-vestlige har forholdsmæssigt langt flere unge og yngre er at indvandrere føder mere end dobbelt så mange børn end danskerne i gennemsnit, og det hænger også sammen med at det netop er de yngre der dominerer de indvandrende.

Som argument eller undskyldende moment til en gruppevoldtaget dansk kvinde kan aldersfordelingen blandt indvandrerne eller deres fertilitet vel næppe bruges.

Den voldsomt stigende aldersandel under 30 år – fra 40,4 pct. i 1998 til 52,2 pct. i 2003 – kunne nemt få kriminaliteten til at stige yderligere. Er dette tilfældet skal det forhåbentlig ikke skjules.

Antallet af indvandrere og efterkommere opgøres således at alle senere generationer af efterkommere end den første medregnes som danskere, danske statsborgere og omtales nydanskere. Vi ser at uanset hvorledes begrebet dansker er fastslået i Lov om Dansk Indfødsret som en person der er dansk statsborger med mindst én forældre, der er dansk statsborger og født i Danmark, så er indholdet nu udvandet så meget at der ved brug af den ændrede befolkningsopgørelse fra 1991, at langt mere end halvdelen af ikke-vestlige indvandrere og deres børn figurerer som danske i optællingerne.

Dette medfører at stambefolkningen af danskere i opgørelserne til sammenligningsbrug kommer til at stå for en hel del af den kriminalitet, der rent faktisk er udført af ikke-vestlige indvandrere og deres børn, selv når sammenligningen vel at mærke skal foretages ved angivelser i forhold til befolkningsgruppernes størrelser.

Interpols’ opgørelsesmetode der sammenligner antallet af kriminelle gerninger i de forskellige befolkninger og befolkningsgrupper med gruppernes størrelser er ufravigelig, så længe det har interesse at se på om 150 voldtægter på Anholt eller i Danmark skal slå mest alarm, og for at se bag udbredelsen og årsagerne bag denne kriminalitet.

Antallet af kriminelle gerninger inden for de forskellige hovedgerningskategorier – udført af ikke-vestlige indvandrere og deres efterkommere – pr. 100.000 i gruppen af ikke-vestlige indvandrere og deres efterkommere, bliver 2-4 gange større end det tilsvarende antal for danske statsborgere. Også selvom der blandt danske statsborgere endog er flere hundrede tusinde ikke-vestlige indvandrere og efterkommere med tildelt dansk statsborgerskab.

Dette er påvist i detaljer på: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/krim/krim.html og sidste nyt http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/sandfrem.html

Idet vi konstaterer at kriminalitetens udbredelse blandt de indvandrede og deres børn ingenlunde mindskes, men tværtimod øges efter et længere ophold, også præget af lediggang her i landet, finder mange det af stor vigtighed at få målt kriminalitetens udbredelse i forhold til to gruppers størrelse:

Vestlige indbyggere herunder danskere på den ene side og ikke-vestlige indvandrere og deres efterkommere på den anden.

Her er man fra officielt side gået over til at måle kriminalitetsudbredelsen ved, at der sammenlignes mellem ikke-vestlige indvandrere på den ene side og befolkningen som helhed (inklusive den først gruppe) på den anden side.

Herved nedtones kriminaliteten yderligere blandt de ikke-vestlige selvsagt. Og efterhånden som indvandringen fortsætter, og de fremmedes fødselsoverskud her i landet vokser til, bliver kriminaliteten blandt de fremmede øget i omfang.

Paradokset er dog at du læser det stik modsatte af de officielle opgørelser.

I 2005 bragte myndighederne sig gnaske selvforskyld i frygteligt dilemma, som netop havde advaret imod:

Justitsministeriet udarbejdede i oktober 2005 en opgørelse af kriminaliteten fordelt på danske og individer med udenlandsk oprindelse. Opgørelsen medtager kun første generation af efterkommere af indvandrere. Dette gælder når vi ser på antallet af kriminelle gerninger; senere generationers kriminelle gerninger tilregnes således danskerne. Men endnu være er det, at befolkningsgrundlaget kun indeholder cirka halvdelen af gruppen med udenlandsk oprindelse. Herved bliver indvandrernes overkriminalitet stærkt overvurderet. Sagt meget enkelt: Hvis her kun er få indvandrere, så syner kriminalitetens udbredelse meget større i forhold til indvandrergruppens samlede størrelse. At kriminelle gerninger udført af senere generationer tilregnes danskerne trækker lidt i den anden retning. Derfor kan Justitsministeriets opgørelse af sigtelser for 2004 desværre ikke bruges. Det hele skyldes grundlæggende, at registreringen af ‘indvandrere’ og ‘efterkommere’, som hele opgørelsen bygger på, ikke begrebsmæssigt er dækkende og entydig. Indvandrerne har ikke en overkriminalitet på godt 5 gange, som opgørelsen angiveligt skulle vise, men nærmere 2-4 gange afhængig af, hvilke overtrædelser af Straffeloven, der ses på. Det er rigtigt, at overkriminaliteten er størst ved de forbrydelser, der giver den største straf.
IoD-uddybning: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/sandfrem.html

Officiel kilde:
Justitsministeriets Forskningsenhed: Sigtelser 2004 fordelt efter indvandrerbaggrund og oprindelsesland:


Børnefødslernes fordeling:

Fornylig viste en undersøgelse med data fra Københavns Kommunes Statistiske Kontor at indvandrernes efterkommere tilpasser sig det antal børn som nordiske kvinder føder.

Ja, det ser sådan ud, fordi de naturaliseredes børn medregnes i optællinger som danske børn. Herved bibringes vi de indtryk at danske kvinder føder flere børn i gennemsnit end tilfældet er, og samtidig at de ikke-vestlige indvandrerkvinder føder færre end de faktisk gør.

Fertiliteten er det antal børn kvinder i de forskellige fødedygtige aldre forventer at føde og har født. Den er udpræget kulturbestemt og intet tyder på at danske kvinder skulle føde flere børn igen, også fordi kulturårsagerne der førte til de lave fertilitetstal 1,2-1,3 barn pr. dansk kvinde stadig er gældende. Den var 1,377 i 1983, da indvandringen tog fart med den nye udlændingelov, og siden da er den snarere faldet.

Meget tyder på det – det burde undersøges: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/cona.htm og

Tilsvarende viser internationale undersøgelser i FN og andre organer at fertiliteten nok ændrer sig ved vandring til et vestligt land. De ringere levevilkår har været tillagt den væsentligste årsag til de uforholdsmæssigt mange fødsler i ikke-vestlige lande i forhold til her. Ved vandring til Vesten sker der en markant ændring i disse levevilkår, hvorfor så børneantallet måske skulle forventes mindsket blandt de indvandrede ikke-vestlige kvinder. Men sådan forholder det sig ikke.

Det forholder sig stik modsat. Kvinder der kunne forventes at føde måske 4 børn i Afrika føder 5 børn i Vesten. Det er den tendens der i alt fald slår igennem, når man interviewundersøger og optæller det gennemsnitlige antal børn pr. indvandret ikke-vestlig kvinde.

Det blev faktisk bekræftet af chefen for Københavns Kommunes Statistiske kontor Claus Woll
25. januar 2004: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/conni.html i sidste afsnit

Eksempel på en “kikser”

Når ”Befolkningens Bevægelser” fra Danmarks Statistik 2003 viser at ”indvandrere” føder 2,550 barn ”efterkommere” 1,776 barn og ”Danmark” 1,674 barn i gennemsnit pr. kvinde, så er ”Danmark” her en lidt morsom, uvedkommende samlekategori – for bl.a. stamdanskeres fødsler, naturaliseredes fødsler og de naturaliseredes børns fødsler. Flydebegreberne ”indvandrere”, ”efterkommere” indførtes i 1991 uden at de dækkede problemstillingen, der burde gå ud på at beskrive, hvorledes indbyggerne i Danmark er sammensat. På den måde opnåede de besluttende at de fremmedes fødsler kunne kaldes danskernes i opgørelserne. Næsten samtidig med at statsborgerskaberne uddeltes i et rekordstort antal fra 1995 begyndte antallet af fremmede statsborgere med ophold Danmark faktisk at gå tilbage fra år 2000. Herved camoufleredes også den største nettotilstrømning af fremmede til Danmark nogensinde på et år, i 2001 med over 20.000.

Det samme er sket i alle de 15 EU-medlemsstater. I Belgien gik antallet af fremmede således ned fra 903.120 i 1998 til 846.734 i år 2003 i følge den officielle befolkningsstatistik. Bare i år 2000 uddeltes 124.962 belgiske statsborgerskaber, et antal der var en hel del større end det antal der indvandrede til Belgien det samme år.

De ny belgiske statsborgere kaldes nybelgiere, og de mange nytilkomne i år 2000 var end ikke mange nok til at tage de forvandlede indvandreres pladser i statusopgørelserne. Præcis som i Danmark i mindre målestok.


I 2005 figurerer mere end halvdelen af de fremmede i Danmark blandt danskerne i de officielle opgørelser af indvandrere og efterkommere og danske (og divergensen mellem det officielle og det reelle udvides år for år). Statsborgeropgørelsen giver kun et vink om tilstrømningen, fordi et større antal fremmede tildeles dansk statsborgerskab, end det antal, der samme år kommer ind som nyindvandrere eller fødes i Danmark som udenlandske statsborgere.

Selvom det samlede fødselsoverskud i Danmark langt fra er nok til at opretholde en stabil befolkning – der synes at være livet om at gøre for postmodernister, der udskifter viden med tro – så lader man danske kvinder/”Danmark” fremstå med en alt for høj fertilitet i forhold til den korrekte for danske kvinder. Ved at lade alle fødslerne af naturaliserede henregne under danske fødsler, selv om dette er helt forkert, opnås at danskernes fertilitet kan angives til 1,674 jf. Befolkningens Bevægelser, Danmarks Statistik, 2003, samtidig med at indvandreres og efterkommeres (i 1. generation) fertilitet så kan reduceres kunstigt til 2,472 i gennemsnit. Dansker føder i virkeligheden mellem 1,2 og allerhøjest 1,4 barn, og de fremmede kvinder 3,5-4,0 børn i gennemsnit. Mere præcise angivelser kan ikke gives, da der ikke findes pålidelige, officielle fertilitetsundersøgelser i Danmark.

De fremmede er 3-3 1/2 gange så ofte ledige. For at få de lediges ledighedsprocent kunstigt ned har man trukket en mængde af de fremmede ud af arbejdsstyrken. Hertil kommer at for både danskere og fremmede ynder man ikke at medtælle bistandsklienter som ledige, selvom de står til rådighed for arbejdsmarkedet. Næsten hvert år afslører Finansministeriet Budgetredegørelse også at vor kritik er fuldt berettiget Alene sidstnævnte forhold betyder at ledighedsprocenten skal ganges med 4 eller 5 i almindelighed, og efterhånden som flere kastes ud af dagpengesystemet eller ikke når der ind i det, bliver der en stadig større andel af de ledige, som er bistandsklienter.

Velfærdskommisionen berettede i maj 2005 at de fremmede er 3 gange dyrere end danskerne i den offentlige sektor.
Såmænd, ja…det var ingen nyhed…Jo, en officiel nyhed.

Selvfølgelig slår de grundlæggende fejlopgørelser af befolkningsforholdene også igennem på kriminaliteten blandt fremmede og danske i de hidtidige officielle analyser af kriminaliteten. Her har man oveni fundet på ny lige så skråsikker og fuldstændig latterlig sammenligningsmetode. I steder for at sammenligne direkte mellem danske og fremmede, så foretages sammenligningen mellem fremmede på den ene side og danske, danske statsborgere og vestlige udlændinge og de fremmede (igen) på den anden side. Da analyserne af kriminaliteten mest har såkaldt kriminologisk formål – kriminalitetsforklarende og såkaldt forebyggende formål – så ynder man ikke at måle kriminaliteten ved udbredelsen i de pågældende befolkningsgrupper, selvom sådanne sammenligninger byggende på en korrekt analyseform med grupper adskilte – som bl.a. Interpol anvender til sammenligninger fra land til land og i befolkningsgrupper – vil vise at kriminaliteten er 2-4 gange mere udbredt blandt de fremmede end blandt danske, når vi ser på de mest alvorlige forbrydelser. Dette forhold afspejles også blandt de indsatte i fængslerne, hvor de fremmede optager fra 35-50% af pladserne for de groveste forbrydelser.

25 års korrektion af fremmedopgørelserne er foretaget på: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/katrocia.html, og for såvidt angår immigranter i Danmark stammende fra Tyrkiet og Pakistan: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/tyda.htm

Disse syv gennemgange går i flere detaljer med baggrunden for sammenligningerne:

Seks gode grunde: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/seks.html

Børnefødsler i København og Danmark, januar 2004: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/conni.html

Fertiliteten – en opklaringsopgave: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/cona.htm

Tyske kvinders fødsler: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/fertty.html

Prognose for befolkningsudviklingen i Danmark, 2003: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/edu/protek.html

Prognose for befolkningsudviklingen i Danmark, 2003 (fuldstændig gennemgang):

Antal fremmede i Danmark, pr. 1. januar 2006: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/udl05/index.html

Vores Fremtid i Europa – interesseret? – januar 2004: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/eufolk.html

Ebbe Vig, cand. oecon.,
januar 2005
Med enkelte tilføjelser marts 2006


Dansk Forskning umulig

Information om Danmark:

Dansk Forskning i Befolkningsforhold umulig

Dansk videnskabsmand rettede 18. oktober 2005 henvendelse til Information om Danmark i sin nød, da han ikke kunne bruge det officielle danske befolkningsregnskab som grundlag for sin forskning. Han ønsker om muligt en oversigt over de reelle tal for indvandring og fordeling i DK, gående tilbage i hvert fald til omkring CPR registerets begyndelse.
Kan du hjælpe mig med at formulere den rette analytiske tilgang – set i forhold til, hvad der rent faktisk findes (kan etableres) af talmæssigt grundlag ud fra Danmarks Statistik, skrev han?
Har du nogen ide om, hvilke ressourcer dette arbejde ville kræve?

Efter at have gennemgået hans forskningsplaner når jeg til det resultat, at han har brug for følgende udtræk fra CPR via Danmark Statistik:

a.. Udenlandske statsborgere fordelt på nationalitet.
b.. Naturaliserede danske statsborgere, inklusive naturaliserede sammen med en
eller begge forældre fordelt på nationalitet før naturalisationen
c.. Børn af naturaliserede danske statsborgere fordelt på nationalitet før
forældrenes naturalisation.
d.. [Fødslerne i Danmark skal registreres efter forældrenes tilknytning: Begge
danske af fødsel, mindst én dansk af fødsel, mindst en dansk statsborger, øvrige, fordelt på nationalitet]

Mere specifikt:
a..Statusopgørelse af antal statsborgere fordelt på nationalitet pr. 1. januar XX fra 1968 til 2006
b..Antal naturaliserede inklusiv de naturaliserede børn på tidspunktet for naturalisationen fordelt på nationalitet før naturalisationen for hvert kalenderår for årene 1968-2005
c..Antal fødsler blandt naturaliserede efter naturalisationen fordelt på nationalitet forud for naturalisationen for hvert kalenderår for årene 1968-2005
d..se nedenfor d..1-d..4

I følge: :
§ 1 Et barn erhverver dansk indfødsret ved fødslen, hvis faderen eller moderen er dansk. Er barnets forældre ikke gift, og er kun faderen dansk, erhverver barnet kun dansk indfødsret, hvis det er født her i riget.

d..1 Fødte i kalenderåret XX med dansk fader og dansk moder for årene 1968-2005
d..2 Fødte i kalenderåret XX med mindst én forældre dansk for årene 1968-2005
d..3 Fødte fordelt på nationalitet i kalenderåret XX med mindst en naturaliseret forældre for årene 1968-2005
d..4 Fødte i øvrigt fordelt på nationalitet i kalenderåret XX for årene 1968-2005

Vi skulle sikrer os, at disse udtræk defineredes korrekt og kobledes korrekt med de socio-økonomiske variable som analysen omfatter, f.eks:

Nettoindvandringen til Danmark 1968-2006 fordelt på oprindelsesland/nationalitet.
Indvandreres fødselshyppighed og dødelighed i Danmark fordelt på oprindelsesland.
Indvandrere fordelt på alder.
Kriminaliteten fordelt på danskere og indvandrere.
Indvandrere og uddannelse.
Indvandrere og deres erhvervsmæssige tilknytning.
Indvandrere, deres indtjening og sociale forhold.

Disse nødvendige udtræk blev indbygget i forskerens ansøgning om offentlige midler og oversattes til engelsk, som det er blevet traditionen her til lands.

Ansøgningen skulle tilgå en af regeringens såkaldte tænketanke, der også formelt
udfører forskning i befolkningsforhold.

Jeg hørte ikke mere.

Naturligvis har vi givet et forslag til en forbedret befolkningsopgørelse i Danmark:

Da det samlede antal naturalisationer offentliggjordes primo februar 2006, foretog vi straks en korrektion for så vidt af officielle immigrant-antal og deres børn i Danmark på: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/kantranspo.html

Hvorledes sammenlignende undersøgelser umuliggøres af samme umulige befolkningsregnskab: http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/samm.html eller http://www.lilliput-information.com/economics/engsamm.html

18. maj 2006
Ebbe Vig, cand. oecon.