Danmark

7. februar 2014

Die »Stunde der Wahrheit« kommt: Crashprophet warnt


935500

Quelle: http://info.kopp-verlag.de/hintergruende/deutschland/redaktion/die-stunde-der-wahrheit-kommt-crashprophet-warnt.html

Machen wir uns klar:

•Geheime Berichte aus Frankreich zeigen, dass dort die Gefahr schwerster Unruhen aktuell von Monat zu Monat steigt.

•Erst vor Kurzem wurde eine Umfrage bekannt, nach der die Eliten vom Weltwirtschaftsforum nichts so sehr fürchten wie schwerste soziale Spannungen.

•In den USA erschien jetzt eine Studie, wonach die Europäer wieder in einer »vorrevolutionären Zeit leben«. Es gebe tiefste Einschnitte in die sozialen Systeme. Die derzeitigen politischen Führer würden bald von der Bevölkerung zum Tode verurteilt und dann hingerichtet werden (übrigens: die Studie entstand vor den Unruhen in der Ukraine, deren Ausgang für die Regierung vollkommen ungewiss ist).

•Deutschlands Kommunen und Städte stehen vielerorts faktisch vor dem Bankrott.

•Die so genannten impliziten Schulden in Deutschland – inklusive der Rückstellungen und Verpflichtungen für Beamtenpensionen oder ähnliche absehbare Katastrophen – betragen nunmehr schon sieben Billionen Euro.

•Der Beitrag für Krankenkassen soll neuesten Untersuchungen nach drastisch steigen.

•Die Schwellenländer, die bislang unsere Exporte aufnehmen, stehen nach den ersten Währungsturbulenzen vor einem dramatischen Absturz.

•Die Rente mit 63 Jahren soll mehr als 150 Milliarden Euro kosten.

 

Es gärt in Europa Wann wird sich die aufgestaute Wut entladen?

Schaut man sich das 20. Jahrhundert und die vielen Kriege und Bürgerkriege dieser Epoche an, dann gab es immer drei Vorboten der blutigen Gemetzel: wirtschaftliche Krisen, ethnische Spannungen und staatlichen Machtverfall. Trafen sie gleichzeitig zusammen, dann waren schreckliche Kriege unvermeidbar. Mit wissenschaftlicher Präzision führte der Weg dann direkt in die große Katastrophe. Noch nie aber hat es auf der Welt so viele neue Brandherde gegeben wie heute, bei denen alle Vorbedingungen für Kriege und Bürgerkriege gleichzeitig aufeinanderprallen.

Udo Ulfkotte hat mit Polizeiführern, Angehörigen der Bundeswehr und mit Mitarbeitern des Bundeskanzleramtes gesprochen. Unabhängig von den Sonntagsreden der Politik zeigt er die explosiven Brandherde auf, in denen die Polizei die Sicherheit der Bürger bald schon nicht mehr wird garantieren können. Udo Ulfkotte präsentiert Ihnen in diesem topaktuellen Dossier Fakten, die Sie in den Massenmedien vergeblich suchen:

  •  Warum es auch im deutschsprachigen Raum zu bürgerkriegsähnlichen Zuständen kommen wird.
  •  Die dreisten Lügen und Manipulationen der Politik und der Mainstream-Medien.
  •  Die geheimen Vorbereitungen für die Niederschlagung von Aufständen
  •  Das Projekt »EU-SEC«: Der EU-Leitfaden für Polizei- und Sicherheitsbehörden.
  •  Fallschirmjäger und EUROGENDFOR: Wie EU-Staaten militärische Einheiten für den Einsatz im Inneren vorbereiten.
  •  Die Rückkehr der Todesstrafe.
  •  Was die EU-Geheimpolizei über Sie weiß.
  •  Der Angriff auf das Brief- und Postgeheimnis.
  •  Die brisanten Planspiele der Bundeswehr.
  •  Der IWF und die Blaupausen für Enteignungen.
  •  Vorsorge für den möglichen Ernstfall in 10 Punkten.

2. februar 2014

HVAD KOSTER INDVANDRINGEN EUROPA ?


fahne Danemars

Kilder:

Schweiz, korte kendsgerninger i uddrag af :

Was die islamische Immigration Europa kostet – Eine Abrechnung mit einem Mythos – Beispiel Schweiz og

M.h.t. Danmark bringes også en række oplysninger berettet af Daniel Pipes og Lars Hedegaard i New York Post. Her tales bl.a. om 4 pct. ‘danske Muslimer’ beslaglægger 40 pct. af de danske socialomkostninger [og det er selvfølgelig ikke rigtigt, eftersom muslimer ikke tælles i noget vestligt land; vi kan oplyse, at der er cirka 11-13 pct. af dem, der bor i Danmark i 2013, som stammer fra et muslimsk domineret land eller område.]. Det retter vi nedenfor.

Was die islamische Immigration Europa kostet – Eine Abrechnung mit einem Mythos – Beispiel Dänemark

schweiz

Schweiz [der skal have folkeafstemning om indvandringen den 9. februar]:

„Forsorgssystemerne blev lavet til svejtsere, men de benyttes af udlændinge. Den svejtsiske socialstat har et udlændingeproblem. Undersøgelse indeholdt i denne udgave viser, at indtil 80% af vores socialhjælpsydelser går til udlændinge, til asylansøgere og til folk, der for kort tid siden er blevet borgere i landet.  [4] [1]

Lå andelen af beskæftigede af indvandrerne i år 1990 endnu på 53,4%, udgjorde det 17 år senere (2007) lige på 30,2%. I klartekst: 70 pct. af alle udlændinge, der vandrer til Schweiz vender sig direkte mod socialforsorgen. [2]

Socialhjælpsydelserne : 43,7% er til folk af udenlandsk oprindelse. Ved en udlændingeandel i befolkningen på 20,5% er socialhjælpsrisikoen for udlændinge væsentligt højere end for svejtserne. [7]

„Men indvandrere har hverken sprogkundskaber eller arbejdsudddannelse med sig, og er heller ikke indstillet på at videreuddanne sig passende, endsige ‘at lade sig integrere’. Ufaglært arbejdskraft uden sprogkundskaber har i det specialiserede arbejdsmarked i Schweiz næppe en chance.” [8]

„Takket være vore generøse socialsystemer mangler der ofte et incitament til fortsætte med videreuddannelse eller til at intensivere jobsøgningen på verdensomspændende arbejdsmarked. I Schweiz er kan man så heller ikke at rykke slægtninge eller ægtefæller, der (som i mange lande) for at betale for arbejdsløse, men arbejdsløshedsforsikring og social bistand – og dermed bidrag og skatteydere. Resultatet: andelen af ​​udlændinge af modtagere af velfærdsydelser i Schweiz er over gennemsnittet, og vokser støt. At relatere de udlændinge, der tegner sig for en andel af befolkningen 20,4 procent, 43,8 procent af social bistanden og mere end fyrre procent af (Hartz-)IV-ydelserne.“[9]

[1] Roger Köppel: „Zuwanderung in die Sozialsysteme“, Kommentar in: Die Weltwoche, Ausgabe 14/2007.

[2] Adrian Amstutz, Nationalrat: “Ausländische Sozialwerkplünderer gehören ausgeschafft” Die “Balkanisierung” der Sozialwerke, in: Radio Kempten, 9.8.2007.

[4] ebd.

[7] Schweizer Bundesamt für Statistik.

[8] Adrian Amstutz: „Die “Balkanisierung” der Sozialwerke“, Schweizerzeit Nr.22, 7.September 2007 (http://www.schweizerzeit.ch/2207/sozialwerk.htm)

[9] ebd. 

Demographische Bombe: Zahl der Muslime Europas explodiert

“Var der 1945 alle 600.000 muslimer i Europa, er der allerede over 50 millioner. Med Lissabontraktaten har Europa forpligtet sig til at modtage yderligere 50-100.000.000 muslimer i Europa. Senest 2050. Hovedsageligt fra de nordafrikanske lande. Men i stigende grad fra regionerne i det såkaldt sorte Afrika eller Centralafrika eller Ækvatorial-Afrika syd for Sahara. 90 procent af alle siden 90′erne i sidste århundrede, der kom til Europa som indvandrere, var muslimer.

I det sydlige Frankrig, er der nu flere moskeer end kirker. 30 procent af den franske befolkning til 20 år er muslimer. I Nice og Paris, hvis andel er allerede nu 45 procent. 2027 20 procent af den franske befolkning vil være muslimer. Senest 2050 vil Frankrig være en islamisk republik. I Holland i 2025 halvdelen af ​​den hollandske befolkning være muslim. I England voksede den muslimske befolkning i de sidste 30 år med 30 gange 82.000 til 2,5 mio. Mediator har talt der over 1000 moskeer – hvoraf mange tidligere var kirker. I Belgien i 2010 var allerede 25 procent af den samlede befolkning er muslimer. 50 procent af alle nyfødte i Belgien allerede muslimer…”

……………………………………………………………………………………….

Danmark, Tyskland, Sverige:

- I Danmark forbrugtes 30-35 pct. af alle velfærdsudgifter i 2010 på ikke-vestlige. I 2010 var det 226-266 mia. kr.

- I Tyskland forbrugtes i 2011 28% af alle socialudgifter på indvandrere og deres børn: I 2011 var det 131,4 mia. EUR svarende til 981 mia. kr.

- I Sverige forbrugtes i 2012 andelen af samtlige socialbidrag 57%  på indvandrere og deres børn med en overrepræsentation på 7,1 gange. I 2007 290 mia. sv.kr. svarende til 22,3% af samtlige skatter og afgifter på 1300 mia. sv. kr. i 2007.
 

- I Norge Næringslivets Hovedorganisasjon i Norge har udsendt en pressemeddelelse, som er en bombe under oplysningerne om, hvad de danske udlændingeomkostninger officielt skulle være . Disse er et par gange i danske rapporter blevet anslået til 15,7 mia. kr. årligt. Nordmændene har nu for Norges vedkommende regnet sig frem til ca. 60 milliarder n.kr. i 2011. Men det kan ikke bruges til noget, for Norge har mange flere indvandrere end Danmark og ganske vist flere i arbejde.

- Frankrig forbruger mindst lige så mange Eur på projektet som Tyskland.

og så har vi kun set på det økonomisk altødelæggende.

Bruxelles, Antwerpen og Amsterdam er overtaget. Belgien og Holland er overtaget 2030 

—————————————————————-

Ideologierne Liberalen og Internationalen var enige:

Liberalen ville have afskaffet det skattefinansierede velfærdssystem den selv hoppede med på at indføre. Internationalen ville have et nyt diktatur at gå efter, da de så Sovjet ville bryde sammen. Om det skulle blive et præsteskabs-diktatur med ny retsreligion spillede ingen rolle. Ingen af de indflydelsesrige aktører forstod at enhver ideologi er som alle ideologier.

J. E. Vig, 2. februar 2014

5. januar 2014

IMAM I ENGLAND TALER UD : DE DUMME EUROPÆERE BETALER OS FOR AT EROBRE DEM


Quelle: http://michael-mannheimer.info/2014/01/05/englischer-imam-die-dummen-europaeer-bezahlen-uns-dafuer-dass-wir-sie-erobern-werden/

Londonprædikeren Anjem Choudary udtaler sig om det vi Islamkritikere hele tiden har henvist til trods medløber-advarsler:

untitled

1. Islam vil have verdensherredømme

2. Europa står i første række på muslimernes ønskeliste

3. Muslimerne foragter os

4. De morer sig over vores arbejdsmoral

5. De lever af europæernes arbejde som parasitten lever af værten

6. For at udfylde deres parasitære tilstedeværelse udbytter de den europæiske socialstat lige til dens grænse.

Expert: Islam taking over, Europe soon to be unrecognizable

According to Dr. Mordechai Kedar, European softening, together with demographics, is leading to ‘abysmal’ change. Dr. Avika Libman: Riots start with preachers demanding Muslim state

Islam-demo_4-213x300

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Det absurde består i at sådanne prædikere ikke fordømmes af de europæiske stater og deres mainstream-medier. Derimod foragtes, udstødes og angribes de få i staternes stambefolkninger, der udtrykker præcis det samme som imamen. Dvs. der er etableret en alliance med fremmede magter for at fjerne stambefolkningerne i Europa. Det ser ud til at skulle blive europæernes skæbne, hvis de ikke fuldstændig underkaster sig et totalitært trotsky-kommunistisk diktatur, der er godt på vej. Præcis som det Baader-Meinhof-banden i Tyskland, De Røde Brigader i Italien og Action-Directe i Frankrig kæmpede militant med terror for at oprette lige før det leninistiske-stalinistiske Sovjets sammenbrud eller også et islamisk kaliphat. Vi har såmænd set flere sympatisører med disse europæiske terrorgrupper fra dengang i Europa indtage bl.a. deres parlamentariske pladser og også ministerposter.

Imamen taler sandhed. Om den økonomiske udnyttelse af den dansk velfærdsstat (korteste version): http://danmark.wordpress.com/ikke-vestliges-forbrug-af-velfaerd-i-danmark-i-2010/

Med Kosovo og Bosnien som brohoveder kalifatet.jpg On Tochi Percan blog we find: http://balkanpress.blogspot.com/2007/11/en-ny-bok-coming-balkan-caliphate.html

Supplement: http://danmark.wordpress.com/2007/11/17/new-book-by-a-macedonian-the-coming-balkan-caliphate/

 

 

16. december 2013

Europa: Islamisk fundamentalisme er udbredt – bl.a. holdningsopgørelser


Europe: Islamic Fundamentalism is Widespread

by Soeren Kern
December 16, 2013 at 5:00 am

Excerpt from: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4092/europe-islamic-fundamentalism

“A discussion paper published by the Germany-based Gustav Stresemann Foundation — a think tank dedicated to the preservation and advancement of liberal democracy in Europe — warns that national and international Islamic organizations are increasingly putting pressure on Western politicians gradually to criminalize any critique of Islam.

In a commentary on the study, the German newspaper Die Welt says the findings cast serious doubt on the unbridled optimism of European multiculturalists, who argue that Muslim citizens will eventually internalize the mindset of Western democracies.

The majority of Muslims in Europe believe Islamic Sharia law should take precedence over the secular constitutions and laws of their European host countries, according to a new study, which warns that Islamic fundamentalism is widespread and rising sharply in Western Europe.

The “Six Country Immigrant Integration Comparative Survey“—a five-year study of Moroccan and Turkish immigrants in Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Holland and Sweden—was published on December 11 by the WZB Berlin Social Science Center, one of the largest social science research institutes in Europe.

According to the study (German and English), which was funded by the German government, two thirds (65%) of the Muslims interviewed say Islamic Sharia law is more important to them than the laws of the country in which they live.

Three quarters (75%) of the respondents hold the opinion that there is only one legitimate interpretation of the Koran, which should apply to all Muslims, and nearly 60% of Muslims believe their community should return to “Islamic roots.”

The survey shows that 44% of the Moroccans and Turks interviewed agree with all three of the above statements, which makes them “consistent fundamentalists,” and fundamentalist attitudes are just as widespread among younger Muslims as they are among older Muslims.

According to the study, Islamic fundamentalism is most pronounced in Austria, where 73% of Muslims interviewed say Sharia law is more important than the secular laws of the state; 79% say there is only one correct interpretation of the Koran that should apply to all, and 65% believe Muslims should return to their Islamic roots. In Austria, 55% of the Muslims surveyed say they agree with all three of the above statements.

The author of the study, the Dutch sociologist Ruud Koopmans, says that “comparisons with other German studies reveal remarkably similar patterns. For instance, in the 2007 Muslime in Deutschland study, 47% of German Muslims agreed with the statement that following the rules of one’s religion is more important than democracy, almost identical to the 47% in our survey that finds the rules of the Koran more important than the laws of Germany.”

The survey also shows considerable Muslim hostility towards so-called out-groups, which are viewed as threatening the religious in-group. For example, nearly 60% of the Muslims interviewed reject homosexuals as friends and 45% say Jews cannot be trusted.

Here too, Muslims in Austria appear to be more fundamentalist than in other European countries: 69% of Muslims in Austria say they reject homosexuals as friends, 63% say Jews cannot be trusted, and 66% believe the West seeks to destroy Islam.

By way of comparison, among European non-Muslim natives interviewed for the study in the six countries, 8% express mistrust against Jews, 10% against homosexuals, 21% against Muslims, and 1.4% against all three.

According to Koopmans, Muslim fundamentalism “is not an innocent form of strict religiosity…While about one in five native Europeans can be considered as Islamophobic, the level of phobia against the West among Muslims—for which oddly enough there is no word; one might call it ‘Occidentophobia’—is much higher still, with 54% believing that the West is out to destroy Islam.”…”

27. november 2013

DET STRAMMER TIL PÅ UDENRIGSSCENEN


Først krigsplaner mod Syrien. Så bureaukrat-forhandlinger, også med storebroder Iran. Frankrig og Iran klarer ærterne på papiret i Geneve. Så er det galt med Kina der overflyver et par øgrupper tilhørende henholdsvis Sydkorea og Japan i Stillehavet. Her måtte man så have et par bombefly forbi. I tillæg har Rusland forlangt at Ukraine bliver væk fra EU-topmøde i Vilninus, hvortil Ukraine var inviteret af et ambitiøst EU, der fortsat vil østpå, medens Tyskland samles i storkoalition til eneste sikring af spekulationsbefængt Euro med ord.

18. juli 2013

Frankrig: Det går den vej hønsene skraber


En sortlistning af forfattere og analytikere, der aldrig skal inviteres til tv- eller radio-talkshows cirkulerer. The “fachosphère” cover of Le Nouvel Observateur ligner en poster af fotos af efterstræbte kriminelle. De listede er ikke kun de, der tør at kritisere Islam, selvfølgelig, men også de der tør supporte Israel, de der vender et kritisk øje mod præsident Obama, og de der kaster tvivl om Euroens levedygtighed.

Læs mere: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/3851/france-totalitarianism

3. juni 2013

EUROPÆERNE RENDES OVERENDE DEMOGRAFISK OM 20-30 ÅR. VI KAN KUN HÅBE PÅ ØKONOMISK KOLLAPS I GOD TID FORINDEN. SÅDAN ER DET.


iodpl2

Denne video illustrerer kortfattet, hvornår

europæerne sættes endeligt ud af spillet

-  hvordan det officielle billede af Europas og Danmark befolkningstilstand inden for de nærmeste få tiår tegnes – Amsterdam har fremmedflertal nu, Holland 2025, Bruxelles 30 pct. nu, og dermed 15-20 år mere for Belgien, Sverige i 2050, Norge 2050-2055, England 2050, Tyskland 2045-2050 – det er 37-42 år for de fire sidste og mindre for Holland og Belgien.

‘I Danmark vil det selvfølgelig aldrig ske’

DET SKAL UNDERSTREGES AT DE FLESTE REFEREREDE FERTILITETER I VIDEOEN ER DE SAMLEDE FERTILITETER I NATIONERNE – det vejede gennemsnit af stambefolkningernes og muslimernes fertiliteter -  OG DET BETYDER AT UDVIKLINGEN GÅR ENDOG HURTIGERE END VIDEOEN BERETTER (se bl.a. det østrigske eksempel via link nedenfor).

Fertilitet er den enkelte kvindes evne og vilje til at føde børn – antal børn pr. kvinder i den fødedygtige alder.




- og hav lidt tålmodighed før videoen starter

When you hear fertility 8 in Türkei it is not quite right, if it does not mean that there are given birth 8 times more relatively. More young and more younger birthgiving women and more children each in addition. In the third world 10 times more births relatively compared with the number of inhabitants is rather common. It is the birth-frequency, not the fertility.

Tyskland:

Die Deutsche Regierung, 2008:

“Der Rückgang der (Deutsche) Bevölkerung ist nicht mehr aufzuhalten. Die fallende Spirale kann nicht mehr gewendet werden… Es wird ein Muslimen Staat im Jahr 2050,”…

kommentierte der Vizepräsident des Statistischen Bundesamtes, Walter Radermacher, heute diese Berechnungen bei der Vorstellung des Berichts auf einer Pressekonferenz in Berlin: http://www.das-parlament.de/2007/31/Thema/16826282.html (at linket ikke længere eksisterer siger sig selv)


bentanop

Vi kommer uafhængigt heraf til cirka samme resultat i Danmark:

 

Danskernes kurve (den blå) bygger på 2700 danskere forlader Danmark netto pr. år, og at danskerne har et fødselsunderskud, der fører til et årligt fald på 0,75 pct. De ikke-vestliges eller fremmedes kurver svarer til alternativerne i tabellen på dette link eller via linket ved klik på grafikken nedenfor:

http://danmark.wordpress.com/fremskrivning-af-antallet-af-fremmede-i-danmark-i-aar-2020/

Klik på grafikken og få modelforudsætningerne, tabelgennemløb for fremskrivningen sammen med den grafiske fremstilling

Grafisk fremstilling af befolknings-projektionen 2008 og 2013:

Kurveskæringer år 2036, 2041 eller 2050

Demografisk eller økonomisk død:

Vor eneste chance er økonomisk kollaps, eller det, der måske er værre, krig, længe forinden 2036. Disse alternativer i rette tid vil med sikkerhed sætte gang i beslutningerne vedrørende landets skæbne med beslutninger truffet i IMF eller blandt andre. Naturligvis garanterer dette ikke landets og stambefolkningens beståen uden tilstrækkelige fødsler; det gør intet alternativ til rettidige fødsler. Vælger danskerne fortsat at øge deres forbrugs-muligheder og ikke skære ned på det offentliges skattefinansierede velfærdssystem – som de aldrig har bedt om, men er blevet afhængige af – , der er også er forbrug, så vil vor kultur med sikkerhed gå under, lige som andre kulturer er gået under i egne efterladenskaber, når kulturen gik imod naturen.

Mere drastiske tiltag som at repatriere tilstrækkeligt med indvandrere (omkring 500.000 fra lande med lavere gennemsnitligt IQ end det danske) og i tide bringe den danske fertilitet op til 2,05 - der er tilstrækkeligt med den lave spædbørnsdødelighed vi trods alt har - vil uanset være et mamutprojekt af dimensioner. I seneste fire år er fødselsraten blandt danske kvinder gået yderligere tilbage, så vi er under katastrofetallet i 1983 på 9,9 pr. 1000, som netop motiverede den topstyrede masseindvandring, der er fortsat siden.

‘I Eventyrlandet vil det aldrig ske’

Danmark bliver absolut sikkerhed et område uden erhvervsmuligheder, hvis udviklingen fortsætter som nu

Uddybende supplementer med forudsætninger for noget af det skrevne i dette indlæg
http://danmark.wordpress.com/2009/04/19/graphic-illustration-of-difference-between-the-second-best-and-the-best-projection-and-perhaps-a-little-video-to-make-it-go-into-you-brain/

Forudsigelighed og ansvarlighed, dumstaedig optimisme og blind selv-opofring:

http://danmark.wordpress.com/2009/04/16/forudsigelighed-og-ansvarlighed-dumstaedig-optimisme-og-blind-selv-opofring/

Kvinder i Østrig, et eksempel der tydeligt viser vore indvendinger stemmer:
http://danmark.wordpress.com/2009/04/18/women-of-austria-vedvarende-lav-fertilitet-siden-midten-af-1980erne-2/

Østrigske kvinder og Max Planck Instituttet for Demografi – kort version:
http://danmark.wordpress.com/2009/04/19/i-dansk-og-engelsk-version-danish-official-information-is-not-ok/

Der satses stadig i Danmark på, at 60-70% kan overbevises om den politisk korrekte sandhed:
http://danmark.wordpress.com/2009/05/06/naturligvis-foeder-danskerne-ikke-flere-boern-det-er-de-fremmede/

HELT CENTRALT: Når tilpasningen af fertiliteten ikke sker i Tyskland, ikke i Italien, ikke i England, ikke i Spanien, i Holland, i Belgien, der alle har mindre frit valg på de skattefinansierede ta’ selv-hylder, sker det heller ikke her. Den skattefinansierede velfærd har simpelthen den modsatte virkning på de tilrejsende 1). Hvorfor skulle immigranter fra muslimske lande her tilpasse deres børneantal til det danske antal, når dette ikke sker i nogle af de andre nævnte lande, og når vi samtidig ved børneantal pr. kvinde er kulturelt, religiøst og lovregelbundet, især med en retsreligion. Det er simpelthen bluff sat i gang for at sinke vore reaktioner i tide. En overgang var kriminalitetsraten officielt heller ikke noget vi skulle betragte som meget højere for indvandrere fra muslimske lande og deres børn og børnebørn. Vi havde dog ret.

1) I Søndagsavisen 25. januar 2004 udtaler lederen for personstatistik i Københavns Kommune, Claus Woll : ”Jeg vil da gerne påpege, at der efter min mening ikke har været dækning for de konklusioner, der er draget i medierne på baggrund af rapporten (her: udført af sociologistuderende Connie Carrøe Christiansen for Københavns kommune)”. Ifølge Søndagsavisen afslører en nærmere granskning af tallene, at efterkommere af indvandrere fra ikke-vestlige lande tværtimod får flere børn end deres forældre! For denne gruppe er fødselsraten indenfor de seneste 5 år steget med 10%.”

En forsinket julegave

3. juni 2013
J. E. Vig, cand. oecon.

30. april 2013

HANDELSBLATT MORGEN BRIEFING : FRANKRIG MED KEDELIGE NØGLETAL


Godmorgen kære læser, skriver Handelsblatt fra Lübeck, Tyskland

Vores nabo Frankrig har set bedre dage: Dets andel af verdenshandelen er i de forgangne ti år faldet med en tredjedel. Alene den franske bilindustri har siden 2005 indskrænket produktionen med cirka 40%. I et internt papir fra økonomiministeriet, som vi er kommet i besiddelse af, bliver tilstanden skånselsløst analyseret. Grundene til tilbagegangen, der rækker fra overdrevne lønkrav til brandbeskatning, bliver ligeledes åbent nævnt. Vores Titelkompleks i dag “Berlin betegner Frankrig som problemtilfælde” skulle være pligtlekture for SPD og dets spidskandidater. Der lærer man: Den franske vej er en blind vej.   jetzt lesen

8. april 2013

4. JANUAR 2006: OPLYST AMERIKANER – UDSYNET OG OVERBLIKKET ER NÆSTEN HELT GÅET TABT HERHJEMME


Information of USA

 THE CENTURY AHEAD

 It’s the Demography, Stupid

 The real reason the West is in danger of extinction.

BY MARK STEYN

Most people reading this have strong stomachs, so let me lay it out as baldly as I can: Much of what we loosely call the Western world will not survive this century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not most Western European countries. There’ll probably still be a geographical area on the map marked as Italy or the Netherlands–probably–just as in Istanbul there’s still a building called St. Sophia’s Cathedral. But it’s not a cathedral; it’s merely a designation for a piece of real estate. Likewise, Italy and the Netherlands will merely be designations for real estate. The challenge for those who reckon Western civilization is on balance better than the alternatives is to figure out a way to save at least some parts of the West. One obstacle to doing that is that, in the typical election campaign in your advanced industrial democracy, the political platforms of at least one party in the United States and pretty much all parties in the rest of the West are largely about what one would call the secondary impulses of society–government health care, government day care (which Canada’s thinking of introducing), govern ment paternity leave (which Britain’s just introduced). We’ve prioritized the secondary impulse over the primary ones: national defense, family, faith and, most basic of all, reproductive activity–”Go forth and multiply,” because if you don’t you won’t be able to afford all those secondary-impulse issues, like cradle-to-grave welfare.

Americans sometimes don’t understand how far gone most of the rest of the developed world is down this path: In the Canadian and most Continental cabinets, the defense ministry is somewhere an ambitious politician passes through on his way up to important jobs like the health department. I don’t think Don Rumsfeld would regard it as a promotion if he were moved to Health and Human Services.

The design flaw of the secular social-democratic state is that it requires a religious-society birthrate to sustain it. Post-Christian hyperrationalism is, in the objective sense, a lot less rational than Catholicism or Mormonism. Indeed, in its reliance on immigration to ensure its future, the European Union has adopted a 21st-century variation on the strategy of the Shakers, who were forbidden from reproducing and thus could increase their numbers only by conversion. The problem is that secondary-impulse societies mistake their weaknesses for strengths–or, at any rate, virtues–and that’s why they’re proving so feeble at dealing with a primal force like Islam.

Speaking of which, if we are at war–and half the American people and significantly higher percentages in Britain, Canada and Europe don’t accept that proposition–then what exactly is the war about?

We know it’s not really a “war on terror.” Nor is it, at heart, a war against Islam, or even “radical Islam.” The Muslim faith, whatever its merits for the believers, is a problematic business for the rest of us.
There are many trouble spots around the world, but as a general rule, it’s easy to make an educated guess at one of the participants: Muslims vs. Jews in “Palestine,” Muslims vs. Hindus in Kashmir, Muslims vs. Christians in Africa, Muslims vs. Buddhists in Thailand, Muslims vs. Russians in the Caucasus, Muslims vs. backpacking tourists in Bali. Like the environmentalists, these guys think globally but act locally.

Yet while Islamism is the enemy, it’s not what this thing’s about. Radical Islam is an opportunistic infection, like AIDS: It’s not the HIV that kills you, it’s the pneumonia you get when your body’s too weak to fight it off. When the jihadists engage with the U.S. military, they lose–as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq. If this were like World War I with those fellows in one trench and us in ours facing them over some boggy piece of terrain, it would be over very quickly. Which the smarter Islamists have figured out.

They know they can never win on the battlefield, but they figure there’s an excellent chance they can drag things out until Western civilization collapses in on itself and Islam inherits by default.

That’s what the war’s about: our lack of civilizational confidence. As a famous Arnold Toynbee quote puts it: “Civilizations die from suicide, not murder”–as can be seen throughout much of “the Western world” right now.

The progressive agenda–lavish social welfare, abortion, secularism, multiculturalism–is collectively the real suicide bomb. Take multiculturalism. The great thing about multiculturalism is that it doesn’t involve knowing anything about other cultures–the capital of Bhutan, the principal exports of Malawi, who cares? All it requires is feeling good about other cultures. It’s fundamentally a fraud, and I would argue was subliminally accepted on that basis. Most adherents to the idea that all cultures are equal don’t want to live in anything but an advanced Western society. Multiculturalism means your kid has to learn some wretched native dirge for the school holiday concert instead of getting to sing “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer” or that your holistic masseuse uses techniques developed from Native American spirituality, but not that you or anyone you care about should have to live in an African or Native American society.

It’s a quintessential piece of progressive humbug.Then September 11 happened. And bizarrely the reaction of just about every prominent Western leader was to visit a mosque: President Bush did, the prince of Wales did, the prime minister of the United Kingdom did, the prime minister of Canada did . . . The premier of Ontario didn’t, and so 20 Muslim community leaders had a big summit to denounce him for failing to visit a mosque. I don’t know why he didn’t. Maybe there was a big backlog, it was mosque drive time, prime ministers in gridlock up and down the freeway trying to get to the Sword of the Infidel-Slayer Mosque on Elm Street. But for whatever reason he couldn’t fit it into his hectic schedule. Ontario’s citizenship minister did show up at a mosque, but the imams took that as a great insult, like the Queen sending Fergie to open the Commonwealth Games. So the premier of Ontario had to hold a big meeting with the aggrieved imams to apologize for not going to a mosque and, as the Toronto Star’s reported it, “to provide them with reassurance that the provincial government does not see them as the enemy.”

Anyway, the get-me-to-the-mosque-on-time fever died down, but it set the tone for our general approach to these atrocities. The old definition of a nanosecond was the gap between the traffic light changing in New York and the first honk from a car behind. The new definition is the gap between a terrorist bombing and the press release from an Islamic lobby group warning of a backlash against Muslims. In most circumstances, it would be considered appallingly bad taste to deflect attention from an actual “hate crime” by scaremongering about a purely hypothetical one. Needless to say, there is no campaign of Islamophobic hate crimes. If anything, the West is awash in an epidemic of self-hate crimes. A commenter on Tim Blair’s Web site in Australia summed it up in a note-perfect parody of a Guardian headline: “Muslim Community Leaders Warn of Backlash from Tomorrow Morning’s Terrorist Attack.” Those community leaders have the measure of us.

Radical Islam is what multiculturalism has been waiting for all along. In “The Survival of Culture,” I quoted the eminent British barrister Helena Kennedy, Queen’s Counsel. Shortly after September 11, Baroness Kennedy argued on a BBC show that it was too easy to disparage “Islamic fundamentalists.” “We as Western liberals too often are fundamentalist ourselves,” she complained. “We don’t look at our own fundamentalisms.”

Well, said the interviewer, what exactly would those Western liberal fundamentalisms be? “One of the things that we are too ready to insist upon is that we are the tolerant people and that the intolerance is something that belongs to other countries like Islam. And I’m not sure that’s true.”

Hmm. Lady Kennedy was arguing that our tolerance of our own tolerance is making us intolerant of other people’s intolerance, which is intolerable. And, unlikely as it sounds, this has now become the highest, most rarefied form of multiculturalism. So you’re nice to gays and the Inuit? Big deal. Anyone can be tolerant of fellows like that, but tolerance of intolerance gives an even more intense frisson of pleasure to the multiculti masochists. In other words, just as the AIDS pandemic greatly facilitated societal surrender to the gay agenda, so 9/11 is greatly facilitating our surrender to the most extreme aspects of the multicultural agenda.

For example, one day in 2004, a couple of Canadians returned home, to Lester B. Pearson International Airport in Toronto. They were the son and widow of a fellow called Ahmed Said Khadr, who back on the Pakistani-Afghan frontier was known as “al-Kanadi.” Why? Because he was the highest-ranking Canadian in al Qaeda–plenty of other Canucks in al Qaeda, but he was the Numero Uno. In fact, one could argue that the Khadr family is Canada’s principal contribution to the war on terror. Granted they’re on the wrong side (if you’ll forgive my being judgmental) but no one can argue that they aren’t in the thick of things. One of Mr. Khadr’s sons was captured in Afghanistan after killing a U.S. Special Forces medic. Another was captured and held at Guantanamo. A third blew himself up while killing a Canadian soldier in Kabul. Pa Khadr himself died in an al Qaeda shootout with Pakistani forces in early 2004. And they say we Canadians aren’t doing our bit in this war!

In the course of the fatal shootout of al-Kanadi, his youngest son was paralyzed. And, not unreasonably, Junior didn’t fancy a prison hospital in Peshawar. So Mrs. Khadr and her boy returned to Toronto so he could enjoy the benefits of Ontario government health care. “I’m Canadian, and I’m not begging for my rights,” declared the widow Khadr. “I’m demanding my rights.”

As they always say, treason’s hard to prove in court, but given the circumstances of Mr. Khadr’s death it seems clear that not only was he providing “aid and comfort to the Queen’s enemies” but that he was, in fact, the Queen’s enemy. The Princess Patricia’s Canadian Light Infantry, the Royal 22nd Regiment and other Canucks have been participating in Afghanistan, on one side of the conflict, and the Khadr family had been over there participating on the other side. Nonetheless, the prime minister of Canada thought Boy Khadr’s claims on the public health system was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate his own deep personal commitment to “diversity.” Asked about the Khadrs’ return to Toronto, he said, “I believe that once you are a Canadian citizen, you have the right to your own views and to disagree.”

That’s the wonderful thing about multiculturalism: You can choose which side of the war you want to fight on. When the draft card arrives, just tick “home team” or “enemy,” according to taste. The Canadian prime minister is a typical late-stage Western politician: He could have said, well, these are contemptible people and I know many of us are disgusted at the idea of our tax dollars being used to provide health care for a man whose Canadian citizenship is no more than a flag of convenience, but unfortunately that’s the law and, while we can try to tighten it, it looks like this lowlife’s got away with it. Instead, his reflex instinct was to proclaim this as a wholehearted demonstration of the virtues of the multicultural state. Like many enlightened Western leaders, the Canadian prime minister will be congratulating himself on his boundless tolerance even as the forces of intolerance consume him.

That, by the way, is the one point of similarity between the jihad and conventional terrorist movements like the IRA or ETA. Terror groups persist because of a lack of confidence on the part of their targets: The IRA, for example, calculated correctly that the British had the capability to smash them totally but not the will. So they knew that while they could never win militarily, they also could never be defeated. The Islamists have figured similarly. The only difference is that most terrorist wars are highly localized. We now have the first truly global terrorist insurgency because the Islamists view the whole world the way the IRA view the bogs of Fermanagh: They want it, and they’ve calculated that our entire civilization lacks the will to see them off.

We spend a lot of time at The New Criterion attacking the elites, and we’re right to do so. The commanding heights of the culture have behaved disgracefully for the last several decades. But if it were just a problem with the elites, it wouldn’t be that serious: The mob could rise up and hang ‘em from lampposts–a scenario that’s not unlikely in certain Continental countries. But the problem now goes way beyond the ruling establishment. The annexation by government of most of the key responsibilities of life–child-raising, taking care of your elderly parents–has profoundly changed the relationship between the citizen and the state. At some point–I would say socialized health care is a good marker–you cross a line, and it’s very hard then to persuade a citizenry enjoying that much government largesse to cross back. In National Review recently, I took issue with that line Gerald Ford always uses to ingratiate himself with conservative audiences: “A government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take away everything you have.” Actually, you run into trouble long before that point: A government big enough to give you everything you want still isn’t big enough to get you to give anything back. That’s what the French and German political classes are discovering.

Go back to that list of local conflicts I mentioned. The jihad has held out a long time against very tough enemies. If you’re not shy about taking on the Israelis, the Russians, the Indians and the Nigerians, why wouldn’t you fancy your chances against the Belgians and Danes and New Zealanders? So the jihadists are for the most part doing no more than giving us a prod in the rear as we sleepwalk to the cliff. When I say “sleepwalk,” it’s not because we’re a blasé culture. On the contrary, one of the clearest signs of our decline is the way we expend so much energy worrying about the wrong things. If you’ve read Jared Diamond’s bestselling book “Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed,” you’ll know it goes into a lot of detail about Easter Island going belly up because they chopped down all their trees. Apparently that’s why they’re not a G-8 member or on the U.N. Security Council. Same with the Greenlanders and the Mayans and Diamond’s other curious choices of “societies.” Indeed, as the author sees it, pretty much every society collapses because it chops down its trees.

Poor old Diamond can’t see the forest because of his obsession with the trees. (Russia’s collapsing even as it’s undergoing reforestation.) One way “societies choose to fail or succeed” is by choosing what to worry about. The Western world has delivered more wealth and more comfort to more of its citizens than any other civilization in history, and in return we’ve developed a great cult of worrying. You know the classics of the genre: In 1968, in his bestselling book “The Population Bomb,” the eminent scientist Paul Ehrlich declared: “In the 1970s the world will undergo famines–hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death.” In 1972, in their landmark study “The Limits to Growth,” the Club of Rome announced that the world would run out of gold by 1981, of mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and gas by 1993.

None of these things happened. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. We’re pretty much awash in resources, but we’re running out of people–the one truly indispensable resource, without which none of the others matter. Russia’s the most obvious example: it’s the largest country on earth, it’s full of natural resources, and yet it’s dying–its population is falling calamitously.The default mode of our elites is that anything that happens–from terrorism to tsunamis–can be understood only as deriving from the perniciousness of Western civilization. As Jean-Francois Revel wrote, “Clearly, a civilization that feels guilty for everything it is and does will lack the energy and conviction to defend itself.”

And even though none of the prognostications of the eco-doom blockbusters of the 1970s came to pass, all that means is that 30 years on, the end of the world has to be rescheduled. The amended estimated time of arrival is now 2032. That’s to say, in 2002, the United Nations Global Environmental Outlook predicted “the destruction of 70 percent of the natural world in thirty years, mass extinction of species. . . . More than half the world will be afflicted by water shortages, with 95 percent of people in the Middle East with severe problems . . . 25 percent of all species of mammals and 10 percent of birds will be extinct . . .”

Etc., etc., for 450 pages. Or to cut to the chase, as the Guardian headlined it, “Unless We Change Our Ways, The World Faces Disaster.”

Well, here’s my prediction for 2032: unless we change our ways the world faces a future . . . where the environment will look pretty darn good. If you’re a tree or a rock, you’ll be living in clover. It’s the Italians and the Swedes who’ll be facing extinction and the loss of their natural habitat.

There will be no environmental doomsday. Oil, carbon dioxide emissions, deforestation: none of these things is worth worrying about. What’s worrying is that we spend so much time worrying about things that aren’t worth worrying about that we don’t worry about the things we should be worrying about. For 30 years, we’ve had endless wake-up calls for things that aren’t worth waking up for. But for the very real, remorseless shifts in our society–the ones truly jeopardizing our future–we’re sound asleep.
The world is changing dramatically right now, and hysterical experts twitter about a hypothetical decrease in the Antarctic krill that might conceivably possibly happen so far down the road there are unlikely to be any Italian or Japanese enviro-worriers left alive to be devastated by it.

In a globalized economy, the environmentalists want us to worry about First World capitalism imposing its ways on bucolic, pastoral, primitive Third World backwaters. Yet, insofar as “globalization” is a threat, the real danger is precisely the opposite–that the peculiarities of the backwaters can leap instantly to the First World. Pigs are valued assets and sleep in the living room in rural China–and next thing you know an unknown respiratory disease is killing people in Toronto, just because someone got on a plane. That’s the way to look at Islamism: We fret about McDonald’s and Disney, but the big globalization success story is the way the Saudis have taken what was 80 years ago a severe but obscure and unimportant strain of Islam practiced by Bedouins of no fixed abode and successfully exported it to the heart of Copenhagen, Rotterdam, Manchester, Buffalo…

What’s the better bet? A globalization that exports cheeseburgers and pop songs or a globalization that exports the fiercest aspects of its culture? When it comes to forecasting the future, the birthrate is the nearest thing to hard numbers. If only a million babies are born in 2006, it’s hard to have two million adults enter the workforce in 2026 (or 2033, or 2037, or whenever they get around to finishing their Anger Management and Queer Studies degrees). And the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they’re running out a lot faster than the oil is. “Replacement” fertility rate–i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller–is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common? Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you’ll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada’s fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That’s to say, Spain’s population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy’s population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria’s by 36%, Estonia’s by 52%. In America, demographic trends suggest that the blue states ought to apply for honorary membership of the EU: In the 2004 election, John Kerry won the 16 with the lowest birthrates; George W. Bush took 25 of the 26 states with the highest. By 2050, there will be 100 million fewer Europeans, 100 million more Americans–and mostly red-state Americans.

As fertility shrivels, societies get older–and Japan and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. And we know what comes after old age. These countries are going out of business–unless they can find the will to change their ways. Is that likely? I don’t think so. If you look at European election results–most recently in Germany–it’s hard not to conclude that, while voters are unhappy with their political establishments, they’re unhappy mainly because they resent being asked to reconsider their government benefits and, no matter how unaffordable they may be a generation down the road, they have no intention of seriously reconsidering them. The Scottish executiverecently backed down from a proposal to raise the retirement age of Scottish public workers. It’s presently 60, which is nice but unaffordable. But the reaction of the average Scots worker is that that’s somebody else’s problem. The average German worker now puts in 22% fewer hours per year than his American counterpart, and no politician who wishes to remain electorally viable will propose closing the gap in any meaningful way.

This isn’t a deep-rooted cultural difference between the Old World and the New. It dates back all the way to, oh, the 1970s. If one wanted to allocate blame, one could argue that it’s a product of the U.S. military presence, the American security guarantee that liberated European budgets: instead of having to spend money on guns, they could concentrate on butter, and buttering up the voters. If Washington’s problem with Europe is that these are not serious allies, well, whose fault is that? Who, in the years after the Second World War, created NATO as a postmodern military alliance? The “free world,” as the Americans called it, was a free ride for everyone else. And having been absolved from the primal responsibilities of nationhood, it’s hardly surprising that European nations have little wish to reshoulder them. In essence, the lavish levels of public health care on the Continent are subsidized by the American taxpayer. And this long-term softening of large sections of the West makes them ill-suited to resisting a primal force like Islam.

There is no “population bomb.” There never was. Birthrates are declining all over the world–eventually every couple on the planet may decide to opt for the Western yuppie model of one designer baby at the age of 39. But demographics is a game of last man standing. The groups that succumb to demographic apathy last will have a huge advantage. Even in 1968 Paul Ehrlich and his ilk should have understood that their so-called population explosion was really a massive population adjustment. Of the increase in global population between 1970 and 2000, the developed world accounted for under 9% of it, while the Muslim world accounted for 26%. Between 1970 and 2000, the developed world declined from just under 30% of the world’s population to just over 20%, the Muslim nations increased from about 15% to 20%.

Nineteen seventy doesn’t seem that long ago. If you’re the age many of the chaps running the Western world today are wont to be, your pants are narrower than they were back then and your hair’s less groovy, but the landscape of your life–the look of your house, the layout of your car, the shape of your kitchen appliances, the brand names of the stuff in the fridge–isn’t significantly different. Aside from the Internet and the cell phone and the CD, everything in your world seems pretty much the same but slightly modified.

And yet the world is utterly altered. Just to recap those bald statistics: In 1970, the developed world had twice as big a share of the global population as the Muslim world: 30% to 15%. By 2000, they were the same: each had about 20%.

And by 2020?

So the world’s people are a lot more Islamic than they were back then and a lot less “Western.” Europe is significantly more Islamic, having taken in during that period some 20 million Muslims (officially)–or the equivalents of the populations of four European Union countries (Ireland, Belgium, Denmark and Estonia). Islam is the fastest-growing religion in the West: In the U.K., more Muslims than Christians attend religious services each week.

Can these trends continue for another 30 years without having consequences? Europe by the end of this century will be a continent after the neutron bomb: The grand buildings will still be standing, but the people who built them will be gone. We are living through a remarkable period: the self-extinction of the races who, for good or ill, shaped the modern world.

What will Europe be like at the end of this process? Who knows? On the one hand, there’s something to be said for the notion that America will find an Islamified Europe more straightforward to deal with than M. Chirac, Herr Schroeder & Co. On the other hand, given Europe’s track record, getting there could be very bloody. But either way this is the real battlefield. The al Qaeda nutters can never find enough suicidal pilots to fly enough planes into enough skyscrapers to topple America. But unlike us, the Islamists think long-term, and, given their demographic advantage in Europe and the tone of the emerging Muslim lobby groups there, much of what they’re flying planes into buildings for they’re likely to wind up with just by waiting a few more years. The skyscrapers will be theirs; why knock ‘em over?
The latter half of the decline and fall of great civilizations follows a familiar pattern: affluence, softness, decadence, extinction. You don’t notice yourself slipping through those stages because usually there’s a seductive pol on hand to provide the age with a sly, self-deluding slogan–like Bill Clinton’s “It’s about the future of all our children.” We on the right spent the 1990s gleefully mocking Mr. Clinton’s tedious invocation, drizzled like syrup over everything from the Kosovo war to highway appropriations. But most of the rest of the West can’t even steal his lame bromides: A society that has no children has no future.

Permanence is the illusion of every age. In 1913, no one thought the Russian, Austrian, German and Turkish empires would be gone within half a decade. Seventy years on, all those fellows who dismissed Reagan as an “amiable dunce” (in Clark Clifford’s phrase) assured us the Soviet Union was likewise here to stay. The CIA analysts’ position was that East Germany was the ninth biggest economic power in the world. In 1987 there was no rash of experts predicting the imminent fall of the Berlin Wall, the Warsaw Pact and the USSR itself.

Yet, even by the minimal standards of these wretched precedents, so-called post-Christian civilizations–as a prominent EU official described his continent to me–are more prone than traditional societies to mistake the present tense for a permanent feature. Religious cultures have a much greater sense of both past and future, as we did a century ago, when we spoke of death as joining “the great majority” in “the unseen world.” But if secularism’s starting point is that this is all there is, it’s no surprise that, consciously or not, they invest the here and now with far greater powers of endurance than it’s ever had. The idea that progressive Euro-welfarism is the permanent resting place of human development was always foolish; we now know that it’s suicidally so.

To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take in immigrants at a rate no stable society has ever attempted. The CIA is predicting the EU will collapse by 2020. Given that the CIA’s got pretty much everything wrong for half a century, that would suggest the EU is a shoo-in to be the colossus of the new millennium. But even a flop spook is right twice a generation. If anything, the date of EU collapse is rather a cautious estimate. It seems more likely that within the next couple of European election cycles, the internal contradictions of the EU will manifest themselves in the usual way, and that by 2010 we’ll be watching burning buildings, street riots and assassinations on American network news every night. Even if they avoid that, the idea of a childless Europe ever rivaling America militarily or economically is laughable. Sometime this century there will be 500 million Americans, and what’s left in Europe will either be very old or very Muslim. Japan faces the same problem: Its
population is already in absolute decline, the first gentle slope of a death spiral it will be unlikely ever to climb out of. Will Japan be an economic powerhouse if it’s populated by Koreans and Filipinos? Very possibly. Will Germany if it’s populated by Algerians? That’s a trickier proposition.

Best-case scenario? The Continent winds up as Vienna with Swedish tax rates.

Worst-case scenario: Sharia, circa 2040; semi-Sharia, a lot sooner–and we’re already seeing a drift in that direction.

In July 2003, speaking to the U.S. Congress, Tony Blair remarked: “As Britain knows, all predominant power seems for a time invincible but, in fact, it is transient. The question is: What do you leave behind?”

Excellent question. Britannia will never again wield the unrivalled power she enjoyed at her imperial apogee, but the Britannic inheritance endures, to one degree or another, in many of the key regional players in the world today–Australia, India, South Africa–and in dozens of island statelets from the Caribbean to the Pacific. If China ever takes its place as an advanced nation, it will be because the People’s Republic learns more from British Hong Kong than Hong Kong learns from the Little Red Book. And of course the dominant power of our time derives its political character from 18th-century British subjects who took English ideas a little further than
the mother country was willing to go.

A decade and a half after victory in the Cold War and end-of-history triumphalism, the “what do you leave behind?” question is more urgent than most of us expected. “The West,” as a concept, is dead, and the West, as a matter of demographic fact, is dying.

What will London–or Paris, or Amsterdam–be like in the mid-’30s? If European politicians make no serious attempt this decade to wean the populace off their unsustainable 35-hour weeks, retirement at 60, etc., then to keep the present level of pensions and health benefits the EU will need to import so many workers from North Africa and the Middle East that it will be well on its way to majority Muslim by 2035. As things stand, Muslims are already the primary source of population growth in English cities. Can a society become increasingly Islamic in its demographic character without becoming increasingly Islamic in its political character?

This ought to be the left’s issue. I’m a conservative–I’m not entirely on board with the Islamist program when it comes to beheading sodomites and so on, but I agree Britney Spears dresses like a slut: I’m with Mullah Omar on that one. Why then, if your big thing is feminism or abortion or gay marriage, are you so certain that the cult of tolerance will prevail once the biggest demographic in your society is cheerfully intolerant? Who, after all, are going to be the first victims of the West’s collapsed birthrates? Even if one were to take the optimistic view that Europe will be able to resist the creeping imposition of Sharia currently engulfing Nigeria, it remains the case that the Muslim world is not notable for setting much store by “a woman’s right to choose,” in any sense.
I watched that big abortion rally in Washington in 2004, where Ashley Judd and Gloria Steinem were cheered by women waving “Keep your Bush off my bush” placards, and I thought it was the equivalent of a White Russian tea party in 1917. By prioritizing a “woman’s right to choose,” Western women are delivering their societies into the hands of fellows far more patriarchal than a 1950s sitcom dad. If any of those women marching for their “reproductive rights” still have babies, they might like to ponder demographic realities: A little girl born today will be unlikely, at the age of 40, to be free to prance around demonstrations in Eurabian Paris or Amsterdam chanting “Hands off my bush!”

Just before the 2004 election, that eminent political analyst Cameron Diaz appeared on the Oprah Winfrey show to explain what was at stake:

“Women have so much to lose. I mean, we could lose the right to our bodies. . . . If you think that rape should be legal, then don’t vote. But if you think that you have a right to your body,” she advised Oprah’s viewers, “then you should vote.”

Poor Cameron. A couple of weeks later, the scary people won. She lost all rights to her body. Unlike Alec Baldwin, she couldn’t even move to France. Her body was grounded in Terminal D.

But, after framing the 2004 presidential election as a referendum on the right to rape, Miss Diaz might be interested to know that men enjoy that right under many Islamic legal codes around the world. In his book “The Empty Cradle,” Philip Longman asks: “So where will the children of the future come from? Increasingly they will come from people who are at odds with the modern world. Such a trend, if sustained, could drive human culture off its current market-driven, individualistic, modernist course, gradually creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism–a new Dark Ages.”

Bottom line for Cameron Diaz: There are worse things than John Ashcroft out there.

Mr. Longman’s point is well taken. The refined antennae of Western liberals mean that whenever one raises the question of whether there will be any Italians living in the geographical zone marked as Italy a generation or three hence, they cry, “Racism!” To fret about what proportion of the population is “white” is grotesque and inappropriate. But it’s not about race, it’s about culture. If 100% of your population believes in liberal pluralist democracy, it doesn’t matter whether 70% of them are “white” or only 5% are. But if one part of your population believes in liberal pluralist democracy and the other doesn’t, then it becomes a matter of great importance whether the part that does is 90% of the population or only 60%, 50%, 45%.

Since the president unveiled the so-called Bush Doctrine–the plan to promote liberty throughout the Arab world–innumerable “progressives” have routinely asserted that there’s no evidence Muslims want liberty and, indeed, that Islam is incompatible with democracy. If that’s true, it’s a problem not for the Middle East today but for Europe the day after tomorrow. According to a poll taken in 2004, over 60% of British Muslims want to live under Shariah–in the United Kingdom. If a population “at odds with the modern world” is the fastest-breeding group on the planet–if there are more Muslim nations, more fundamentalist Muslims within those nations, more and more Muslims within non-Muslim nations, and more and more Muslims represented in more and more transnational institutions–how safe a bet is the survival of the “modern world”?

Not good.

“What do you leave behind?” asked Tony Blair. There will only be very few and very old ethnic Germans and French and Italians by the midpoint of this century. What will they leave behind? Territories that happen to bear their names and keep up some of the old buildings? Or will the dying European races understand that the only legacy that matters is whether the peoples who will live in those lands after them are reconciled to pluralist, liberal democracy? It’s the demography, stupid. And, if they can’t muster the will to change course, then “What do you leave behind?” is the only question that matters.

Mr. Steyn is a syndicated columnist and theater critic for The New Criterion, in whose January issue this article appears.

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After America, bestseller

Steyn’s 2011 must-read was a Top Five Washington Post bestseller, a Top Four New York Times bestseller, a Top Four Amazon bestseller, a Top Three Globe & Mail bestseller in Canada, and a Number One bestseller at Amazon Canada. And now it’s out in paperback, with a brand new introduction and more timely than ever in the wake of the US elections.

Stikord herfra

16. februar 2013

“TOBIN” SKAT I 11 EU-lande


Den kontroversielle “Tobin” skat lagt på finanstransaktioner, der er tænkt at skulle forøge skatteprovenuet med mere en 30 mia. Euro i de berørte lande, bliver nu besluttet af 11 lande medlemslande i EU.

De 11 lande er Frankrig, Tyskland, Belgien, Estland, Grækenland, Spanien Italien, Østrig, Portugal, Slovenien og Slovakiet. Den skal træde i kraft i 2014. Sammenlagt repræsenterer disse lande 2/3 af bruttonationalproduktet i EU – før afgiftens indførelse.

EU-kommissionen melder at skatten skal tjene til at tilskynde finansmarkederne og finansinstitutionerne til handle ansvarligt med værdipapirer.

“Tobin” skatten fik sit navn fra en amerikansk økonom James Tobin, der i 1970-erne foreslog en verdensomspændende afgift på valutahandel.

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Her til kan vi melde: Problemerne som de selv samme institutioner ene og alene har givet anledning til bl.a. ved at indføre en fælles obligatorisk valuta i vidt forskelligt strukturerede og på alle måder ulige lande, m.h.t. økonomi-niveau og statsgæld, skal de nu kunne udnytte til ekstra skatteinddragelse og samtidig er skatten tænkt at skulle anvise/anspore aktørerne på finansmarkederne til at handle såkaldt ansvarligt, som det meldes.

At udnytte virkningerne af det man selv har sat i gang ved at beskatte disse virkninger og samtidig tro man ansporer til at forhindre de samme virkninger ved beskatning, det er enfantilt.

“Tobin” Skatten tilskynder til yderligere kapitalflugt fra Tobin-området og mere nedgang, glemte jeg at melde. Altså den modsatte virkning af den EU-kommissionen forestillede sig.

Vi meldte generelt om begrænsningerne for kapitalbevægelser, der eventuelt ville blive sat igang i EU med euroen. Det gjorde vi i 1999:

“Eventuelt stop for kapitalflugt.

Artikel 73F i Maastricht-traktaten taler om, at der i Europa kan indføres kontrol med kapitalbevægelser. Så kan investorerne ikke længere undvige til schweizerfranc, yen eller dollar. Som om investorerne ikke er skræmte nok i forvejen. Spekulanter og investorer følger alt dette meget nøje og drager hurtigt konsekvenserne af ændrede forhold, i modsætning til de europæiske politikere.

Med Euro kan sektoromlægningen til mere salgbar produktion ikke ske og uddannelsesfornyelsen til forbedring af den internationale konkurrencestilling det samme. Vi skal herefter se arbejdsløshed og udstødelsen vokse yderligere samtidig med, at tilskudsøkonomien gøres til den centralistisk valgte omdrejningsakse sammen med aksen til araberolien med alt, hvad der til hører af immigration og øgede offentlige udgifter. Dette tilspidser den strukturelle og sociale krise. Til sidst må politikerne give op og rette sig efter vælgerne, hvis de ikke når deres ideologiske mål forholdsvis hurtigt.” Netop derfor opstod pseudobehovet for forbud mod kapitaleksport.

Stop for kapitalbevægelser ordnede Sovjet på en endnu mere effektiv måde; det skal siges. Ingen statsdannelse i verdenshistorien forspildte i øvrigt mere kapital pr. produceret enhed end Sovjet. Kommer tid kommer råd.

BRAUCHEN DEUTSCHLAND DEN EURO WIRKLICH

Den allerede igangværende valutakrig klares kun med reelle valutakurser i et nyt international monetært pengesystem (på engelsk): http://danmark.wordpress.com/2006/05/19/new-monetary-system/

Igen en forglemmelse: Ritt har netop i går givet sit besyv med om “Tobin” Skatten, vi venter på Frederiksen I

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