Den Nationale Gældskrise
Grækenland skræmmer
Excerpt from: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703630304575270124067449674.html?mod=djemITPE_h
“The spending cuts keep on coming. In fact they are becoming the height of European fashion. Spanish parliamentarians are just the latest to join in, this week approving a €15 billion ($18.4 billion) austerity package aimed at cutting the country’s deficit. It was a tight squeeze for the Socialist government, winning the key vote by one. But a win is a win, and the result means cuts of 5% or more in civil-service pay, the end of the automatic payment to parents of newborn children and big cuts in spending on public projects.
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In Britain, the new Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government declared its intentions with the first £6 billion ($8.6 billion) of savings this week—although they are really only a small down payment on serious deficit reduction. A budget and then a tough spending review are on the way.
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Now Italy is suddenly keen not to be left out. The government used an emergency decree on Tuesday to impose public spending cuts of €24 billion. In response, trade unions are threatening even more strikes than usual. But Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was having none of it: “For years, Italy, like many countries in Europe, lived above its means,” he said. “We are all in the same boat.”
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In terms of European thinking about the state and its obligations, it shouldn’t be underestimated how significant the consequences of these developments are likely to be. The way large parts of Europe have liked to conduct business—with high social spending, and costs loaded on the next generation—has run smack into two roadblocks: market fears about unsustainable debts and demographic change.
For that reason, it isn’t credible to view this period as just a pause before normal service resumes in Europe. Think of the adjustments not as temporary, but as the first glimpse of a dramatically altered landscape.
Perhaps the ever-increasing number of older voters will want to carry on voting for parties that promise them their benefits and generous pensions in full. Perhaps they may even decide to ignore the moral degradation involved in expecting a shrinking pool of workers from the generations of their children and grandchildren to pay for their comforts. But what is clear is that those driving the markets can now see the flaw. They seem disinclined to fund the excessive borrowing required to support such unsustainable arrangements.
This is a serious change. It is only a few years since it was thought bad manners to question the continued viability of the European approach. The post-war conceit, remember, was that the feted “European social model” would provide perpetual high standards of living, high growth, full employment and plentiful benefits for citizens. In the last respect, the European way was deemed by its adherents to be somehow morally superior to the American dream.
But the baby boomers who benefitted most in recent decades are coming up for retirement across the continent. In the UK, for example, according to the Centre for European Reform, “the population of pensionable age will rise by 32% over the next 25 years to 15.6 million, with the number aged over 85 more than doubling to 3.3 million…”
